從平均每人所得的變動看台灣長期的經濟發展

Taiwan's Per Capita GDP in Long-term Development

吳聰敏(Tsong-Min Wu)

《經濟論文叢刊》 32卷3期 (2004/09) Pp. 293-320

https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2004.323.1

摘要

Kuznets(1966,1973)提出現代經濟成長(modern economic growth)的概念,它指的是ㄧ國之平均每人GDP成長率從接近於零提升為顯著大於零。台灣的現在經濟成長出現於日治時期,這是廣為接受的看法,但實際上並未有人具體比較1900年前後平均每人GDP成長率之變動。本文整理日治時期台灣的GDP統計,估算出日治初期台灣的平均每人GDP大約是傳統農業社會的水準。利用此項推估結果,我們進ㄧ步推算清國統治時期平均每人GDP之成長率。本文也利用人口變遷、身高統計、單位面積產量與人口/耕地面積比例之變動，檢驗以上的推論。

關鍵字

國內生產毛額 ； 經濟成長

並列摘要

It is widely known that Taiwan's modern economic growth began during the early Japanese colonial period, which implies that the growth rate of per capita GDP increases significantly in the early 20th century. Using the available estimates from various studies, we compile a long-term series of Taiwan's GDP, and show that the per capita GDP in the beginning of the 20th century was about the level of a traditional agricultural economy. Using an indirect method of estimation, we also show that the per capita GDP growth rate during the Ching era is close to zero. The above results based on the long-term GDP data are then shown to be consistent with the data in demographic change, body height change, rice yields, and population-land area ratios.

並列關鍵字

Gross Domestic Product ； economic development

參考文獻

Banister, Judith(1987).China's Changing Population.Stanford:Stanford University Press.

Barclay, George W.(1954).Colonial Development and Population in Taiwan.Princeton:Princeton University Press.

Ho, Samuel P.S.(1978).Economic Development of Taiwan, 1860-1970.New Haven:Yale University Press.

Kuznets, Simon(1966).Modern Economic Growth.Bombay-1, India:G.U. Mehta.

Kuznets, Simon(1973).Modern economic growth: Findings and rejections.American Economic Review.63(3),247-258.