景氣波動下的再就業機率

本文探討總體環境的波動對台灣非自願性失業勞工再就業機率的影響，同時比較失業勞工之工作搜尋行為受個人特質的影響方向和程度，在不同景氣環境之下是否有所差異。在迴歸方法上，本文依失業期間資料之特性，以間斷時間模型進行估計。利用2001年「失業勞工之就業追蹤調查」資料之實證結果發現，台灣地區非自願性失業勞工的失業期間，在景氣不佳時具有負向期間依賴性，但當景氣好轉時，則具有正向期間依賴性，亦即失業期間愈長者，再就業機率愈高。實證結果顯示，失業給付於景氣不佳時，如理論所預期有降低再就業機率的效果，然而當景氣好轉時，結果則恰恰相反。至於其他大多數的個人特質對於再就業機率的邊際效果，也會受到景氣波動的顯著影響。

關鍵字

景氣波動；失業期間；再就業機率；間斷時間模型

並列摘要

This paper explores the effects of the cyclical variations in the aggregate labor market on reemployment probabilities conditional on personal characteristics. We are particularly interested in how the business cycle influences the way the unemployed behave. A discrete-time model is applied to survey data of involuntarily unemployed workers in Taiwan. Based on the data from the ”Tracing Survey on the Employment of Unemployed Labor” (2001), empirical results concluded that a ranking model is supported during a recession. However, positive duration dependence was found during an expansion. Furthermore, although unemployment insurance tends to decrease the reemployment probability in bad times, it does have a positive effect on the reemployment probability when the economy expands. Other individual characteristics also have consistent statistical significance. Moreover, in most cases, the performance of the aggregate labor market significantly influences the effects of the personal characteristics.

並列關鍵字

Business cycle ； unemployment duration ； reemployment probability ； discrete-time model

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