- 期刊
新凱因斯學派之菲力浦曲線及資本移動性－理論與實證
New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Capital Mobility-Theory and Empirics
摘要
菲力浦曲線斜率的大小，可視為總體政策是否有效的一個重要指標；斜率較平緩的菲力浦曲線，代表財經當局只需犧牲少量的通貨膨脹率便可有效的提升就業率；反之則否；因此，對菲力浦曲線的分析，具有重要的政策含意。本文為了替Loungani，Razin and Yuen (2001)之模型建立個體基要，先以新凱因斯理論為分析基礎，導出小型開放體系下之菲力浦曲線的函數，藉以分析該曲線與資本移動程度間的關係。為了彌補相關實證文獻的不足，我們再以台灣的總體時間序列的季資料，來驗證本文理論模型所猜測的可能命題是否成立。從實證結果顯示，我們有足夠的證據，支持台灣的新菲力浦曲線之斜率，將隨著資本移動程度的放寬而變得較平坦。
並列摘要
The magnitude of the slope of the Phillips curve is a crucial index for the effectiveness of monetary policies. With a flatter slope, the authority can increase inflation less in order to reduce the economy's unemployment rate. Thus, identifying determinants of the output (or unemployment)-inflation tradeoff has an important policy implication. In this paper, to establish a microfoundation for the conventional model, we analysis the relationship between capital mobility and the Phillips curve, while using a small open economy based on a New Keynesian framework. We show that with greater restrictions on capital mobility, a given reduction in the inflation rate is associated with a smaller loss in output, when applied to Taiwan's time series data. This result is shown to be consistent with predictions concerning Taiwan's macroeconomic situation.