預期壽命延長與社會安全制度對長期所得水準的影響

Life Expectancy, Social Security and Long-Run Economic Performance

陳虹如(Hung-Ju Chen) ； 林富玲(Fu-Ling Lin)

《經濟論文叢刊》 35卷1期 (2007/03) Pp. 1-31

https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2007.351.1

摘要

本文利用一個三期的疊代模型來分析預期壽命的延長、退休時點的延後以及社會安全制度（完全提存制度及隨收隨付制度）對長期所得水準的影響。我們假設模型中代表性個人僅能夠安全地存活兩期，在第三期時則需面對存活機率之不確定性。研究結果顯示預期壽命延長可以刺激長期所得水準，但是延長法定退休年齡和提高隨收隨付制度下的稅率則對長期所得水準有負面的效果。另外，在完全提存制度下，當資本市場是完全借貸時，李嘉圖均等定理會成立；但是當資本市場是不完全借貸時，提高提存制度的提撥率會有助於長期所得水準。

關鍵字

預期生命長度 ； 疊代模型 ； 社會安全制度

並列摘要

This paper develops a three-period overlapping generations model to study the impacts of life expectancy, retirement and a social security system (a fully-funded system and a pay-as-you-go system) on long-run economic performance. We assume that agents can only live safely for the first two periods and face uncertainty as to whether they will survive to the third period. We find that an increase in life expectancy will be beneficial to the long-run output per head. However, delaying retirement or increasing the tax burden of young agents under the pay-as-you-go system will be harmful to the long-run output per head. Under a fully-funded system, the Ricardian equivalence will hold if the capital market is perfect. If the capital market is imperfect, increasing the tax rate will increase the long-run output per head.

並列關鍵字

life expectancy ； an overlapping generations model ； social security system

參考文獻

Azariadis, C.,Lambertini, L.(2002).Excess asset returns with limited enforcement.(American Economic Review).

Barro R. J.(1974).Are government bonds new wealth?.Journal of Political Economy.82,1095-1118.

Barro, R. J.,Wolf H.(1989).Data appendix for economic growth in a cross section of countries.

de la Croix(1996).The dynamics of bequeathed tastes.(Economics Letters).

de la Croix, D.,Doepke, M.(2003).Inequality and growth: Why differential fertility matters.(American Economic Review).