Exploring the Sources of Growth and Slowdowns for Growth Successes

經濟快速成長與趨緩成因之探究

盧姝璇(Shu-Shiuan Lu) ； 簡元佑(Yuan-Yu Chien)

《經濟論文叢刊》 48卷4期 (2020/12) Pp. 517-546

https://doi.org/10.6277/TER.202012_48(4).0002

摘要

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan experienced unprecedented high growth after World War II but failed to sustain the high growth after the 1990s. Why did these growth successes fail to sustain their high growth? This study shows that the dynamics of total factor productivity growth has been crucial in driving the overall output dynamics. Moreover, the long-term stagnation was exacerbated by labor market frictions and sometimes prolonged by capital market frictions.

關鍵字

sources of growth and slowdown ； neoclassical ； Japan ； South Korea ； Taiwan

並列摘要

日本、韓國和台灣在二次世界大戰後雖都歷經前所未有的高成長，其幅度卻在1990年代後陸續變小。爲什麼這些經濟快速成長的成功案例無法繼續維持高成長？本研究指出，產出的快速增長與趨緩主要受到總要素生產力變化的影響：總要素生產力快速增長使產出高成長，但其成長速率趨緩時產出的成長也跟著變慢。另外，在成長趨緩時期，多由勞動市場存在均衡下的既有耗損加深趨緩的程度，但是當勞動市場存在均衡下的既有耗損對產出趨緩沒有作用時，資本市場存在均衡下的既有耗損又造成趨緩，使趨緩一直延續，以致成長停滯的問題更嚴重。

並列關鍵字

成長與衰退來源 ； 新古典 ； 日本 ； 韓國 ； 台灣

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