臺灣地區近年來未婚及晚婚趨勢十分明顯,本文利用1982-2008年人力運用調查資料,分別透過集體層次以及個別層次資料,分析社會經濟層面中,勞動市場之經濟條件改變與女性結婚傾向之間的關連,以及哪些經濟因素與結婚率的下降最為相關。本研究主要實證結果發現,一地區的男性及女性的平均就業情形,與當地女性的結婚態度存有明顯關聯性。若一地區婚姻市場有利於男性就業,則當地女性結婚的可能性會提高,此一結果某一程度而言,支持Wilson(1987)所主張當婚姻市場上適合結婚的男人多時,有助於婚姻形成的假說。另一方面,本文實證結果也發現在女性在有較多工作機會的地區,女性傾向延長其搜尋潛在伴侶的時間,不婚的可能性也會提高,此一結果間接支持女性經濟獨立的論點。而本文關於男女就業率對於結婚率的發現,即使在考慮計量模型可能存有的內生性問題下,在透過工具變數法估計後,實證結果依舊沒有改變。
A growing number of individuals have postponed their first marriage and are currently single in Taiwan. This paper employs the Manpower Utilization Survey (MUS) during the period of 1982-2008 to investigate the connection between local marriage propensity and local labor market conditions. Our empirical results indicate that young women are more likely to get married in an area with a higher male employment rate and a lower female employment rate. Women tend to stay single longer when the labor market for women improves or the labor market for men worsens. These findings remain even after we adopt the instrument variable estimation to consider the potential endogeneity problem of local male or female employment rates in the settings.