選民投票的穩定與變遷,是當政者與從事研究工作者所關注的焦點。本文除了分析選民投票穩定與變遷之外,更進一步嘗試探索投票穩定與變遷之變化,藉以探究選民支持對象之「常與變」。爲檢驗研究核心命題,本文以陳水扁於一九九四年與一九九八年兩次競選台北市長以及二○○○年與二○○四年兩次競選總統爲例證,採用「區位推論」(ecological inference)方式,利用Goodman「區位迴歸」(ecological regression)與King「區位迴歸」分析並比較台北市民進黨穩定選民之變化。實證結果發現,在台北市十二個行政區中,部分地區民進黨的忠誠支持者並非固定不變,而是或有上升,亦有減少。例如,在大同區與中山區其穩定支持者明顯增加。反觀,在信義區與南港區穩定選民卻顯著地流失。在結論中,本文摘述研究要點,並提出未來研究方向與建議。
Electoral stability and change is an interesting issue for officials and researchers alike. Recently, the partisan ecology has undergone dramatic changes in Taiwan. Viewed in this light, this work aims at examining not only the electoral stability and changes but also the variations in electoral stability during different periods. In this study, we take the cases of the Taipei mayoral elections in 1994 and 1998 and the presidential elections in 2000 and 2004 and take advantage of ecological inference with Goodman's and King's ecological regression to explore variations in the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP's) loyal supporters in Taipei city. The results reveal that the loyal supporters are not constant in some districts. To go into more detail, in Datong district (大同區) and Zhongshan district (中山區), they show an increase. But in Xinyi district (信義區) and Nangang district (南港區), they show a decrease. In conclusion, we summarize the major findings and propose research suggestions for further investigation.