碳纖維現況與市場預測分析

A Study of Carbon Fiber on Market Trend and its Forecast Survey

吳文演(W. Y. Wu) ； 盧昱君(Y. G. Lu)

《紡織綜合研究期刊》 23卷2期 (2013/04) Pp. 64-71

https://doi.org/10.6439/TTRJ.201304_23(2).0007

摘要

本研究利用相關與迴歸分析與預測後，全球碳纖維之需求量預測得到相關係數r為0.995，代表著極高度正相關性。再利用迴歸方程式分析與預測碳纖維2015年、2020年的需求量將成長至60,760與80,940公噸，成長約為2010年之67.4%與75.0%，故可預測碳纖維的市場需求十分殷切。台灣碳纖維產量之相關係數為0.791，亦代表高度正相關性。預測碳纖維2015年、2020年的產量將成長至68,355與88,195公噸，成長約為2010年之66.6%與77.5%，由此可預測台灣碳纖維有其發展潛力，其中以一般工業與運動休閒應用碳纖維之產品，最適合台灣發展。

關鍵字

碳纖維 ； 相關與迴歸分析

並列摘要

This study employed a correlation and regression analysis to forecast the quantity demand for carbon fiber. The results from the statistical methodology produce a correlation coefficient of 0.995, which represents the presence of a highly positive correlation for the global demand for carbon fiber. This study also predicts that the quantity demand for carbon fiber for the year 2015 and 2020 will increase to 60,760 and 80940 metric ton respectively, which represents a growth rate of 67.4 percent and 75.0 percent respectively from the year 2010. In addition, the correlation coefficient for Taiwan's carbon fiber production is 0.791, suggesting a highly positive correlation. Finally, this study predicts that the production of carbon fiber for Taiwan will increase to 68,355 and 88,195 metric ton for the year 2015 and 2020 respectively, suggesting a growth rate of 66.6 percent and 77.5 percent respectively. This study concludes that there is a great potential for the development and application of carbon fiber globally and in Taiwan. Particularly, the development of the applications of carbon fiber in general industries as well as leisure and sport related products are best suited for development to Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Carbon fiber ； correlation and regression analysis