社會關係取向對選民投票行為之影響：2001年金門縣長選舉個案研究

How the Role of Social Relations Affects Voting Behavior: A Case Study of Kinmen County's Magistrate Election, 2001

張世熒(Shih-Ying Chang) ； 許金土(Kin-Tui Hsu)

《中國行政評論》 13卷4期 (2004/09) Pp. 143-175

https://doi.org/10.6635/cpar.2004.13(4).06

摘要

金門因長期實施戰地政務，加上地處偏遠，導致民主化進程遠落於台灣本島之後。近年來，隨著解除戒嚴及社會的多元化發展，影響金門選民的投票行為取向，是否有明顯改變？從民間社會角度來看，一般深信宗族意識和地理區位對金門選民投票行為，有關鍵性的影響。本文使用「選舉地盤」概念，運用總體層次資料分析方法，企求了解社會關係取向對2001年金門縣長選舉選民投票行為的影響力。
研究結果發現，在金門沒有選舉地盤，幾乎不會當選；地盤數愈多，當選的機率愈大。選舉地盤多出現在聚族而居的村落，若候選人與聚族而居的單姓村或大姓村同姓，則該候選人的得票就愈多，反之則少。
其次，觀察宗族聚落分佈與歷屆選舉候選人得票情形，我們可以歸納出宗族、姻緣、地緣及結盟等四個社會關係取向，構成了候選人「核心地盤」的基礎。但問卷調查結果發現，選民往往會以「候選人取向」來強化其選擇，如果候選人本身形象不好，則核心盤的威力就會減弱。
最後，在象徵利益觀念下，金門縣地方派系已具雛型，暫稱之為「李派」與「陳派」，候選人以各自的選舉地盤為基礎，尋求外部的結盟，構成了本次選戰的主軸。

關鍵字

社會關係取向 ； 投票行為 ； 選舉地盤 ； 候選人取向

並列摘要

Due to the long-term enforcement of 'political control over the war zone' (zhan-dizheng-wu) and its geographic location, the pace of democratization in Kinmen county is far behind that of Taiwan. Has the voting behavior changed significantly in Kinmen after the lifting of marshal law and the advance of plural society? From the perspective of civil society, many believe that those variables such as the clan consciousness and geographic locations in Kinmen play key roles in determining people's voting behavior. This paper, using aggregate data, tries to identify the influence of social-relational orientation on local elections in Kinmen.
The research findings show that the campaign for a certain candidate dooms to be failed without having electoral stronghold(s). In other words, the more strongholds the candidate has and the more votes he or she gets in each stronghold, the more likely that he or she will win the election. The so-called 'electoral strongholds' exist mostly in the countryside, where people with the same surname tend to live together. If the candidate shares the same surname with the single-surname villages or great villages, then he or she tends to attract more votes in those areas; otherwise, the candidate's votes will disperse more evenly. Besides, candidates’ geographical background has similar effect as surname does.
According to the past relationship between surname distribution and votes each candidate got, we observe four relational-oriented determinants that guide people's voting behavior, including surname, marriage, geographical background, and electoral coalition. These determinants consist of the base of stronghold. However, people eventually make their vote choice more with candidates' own characteristics than the candidates’ strongholds.
In addition, in terms of symbolic interest, local factions in Kinmen are emerging, which might be temporarily called 'Li faction' and 'Chen faction.' The core of campaign lies in the fact that each candidate, with his or her own strongholds as bargaining counter, seeks to make maximum coalition.

並列關鍵字

Social Relationship Orientation ； Voting Behavior ； Electoral Territory ； Candidate Orientation