「九二共識」議題與2012年總統選舉選民的投票抉擇：候選人維護「台灣利益」、「兩岸和平」能力的分析觀點

本研究主要透過「九二共識議題投票模型」的建構為基礎，運用經驗資料的驗證，以試圖釐清九二共識議題對於選民投票行為影響的解釋。文中參酌選舉理論的研究傳統，與台灣投票行為研究中已廣為證實的解釋變項，將「九二共識」、以及選民對候選人維護「台灣利益」、「兩岸和平」能力的評估，納入到本研究模型來進行分析。研究發現，2012年總統選舉，在選民心中，除了「選黨又選人」仍是其投票抉擇重點之外，「支持九二共識」對於選民投票行為的影響力，可以從「選民對馬蔡維護台灣利益能力比較」，以及「支持九二共識」在「選民對馬蔡維護兩岸和平能力比較」上的差距，所產生對選民投票抉擇的影響作用而得到轉化。此說明了，「九二共識」議題本身雖非為主宰選民投票的最關鍵因素，但是此議題的操作將可以引導選民去判斷，候選人在維護「台灣利益」能力和「兩岸和帄」能力的信任差異，而達到影響選舉結果的目的。

關鍵字

九二共識；台灣利益；投票抉擇；兩岸和平；總統選舉

並列摘要

This research was mainly based on voting module of 1992 consensus issues and through the verification of experience data to clarify the explanation of influence of voting behavior about 1992 consensus issues. Consider to the traditional research of election theory that based on explanatory variables which has been approved by Taiwan voting behavior research to discuss the voting module of 1992 consensus issues which established by our research institute with 1992 consensus and evaluation of the ability of candidate assert the benefit of Taiwan and peaceful-cross strait. As a result, we discovered that not only ＂choose party and also choose candidate ＂is the point of voting choice, but also the influence of voting behavior with support to 1992 consensus which will turn into the effect of influenced voting choice by voters compared between the differing ability of Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen to assert the benefit of Taiwan and peaceful-cross strait in 2012 presidential election. It has also claimed 1992 consensus may not the key factor of voting, but it can reach the purpose to influence the election results by voters judged between the differing ability of candidate to assert the benefit of Taiwan and peaceful-cross strait.