This article proposes is a method for determining the confidence index of the estimated position for a target device in a wireless system. In the online location tracking phase, after knowing the observations of the radio signal for a target device, the target device's probability distribution of location and its motion model are combined to calculate the position uncertainty, thereby giving the confidence index of this estimated location. First, we determine the location probability distribution, and then calculate the uncertainty of the location probability distribution and the possible maximum uncertainty under the current situation. Based on these uncertainties, we can determine the confidence index of the radio signal. The confidence may be regarded as a quantity that reduces the location uncertainty in the location prediction. The larger the quantity is, the more confident the estimated location is.