台灣上市公司績效變動之預測模式

The Forcasting Model of Financial Performance of Public Offering Firms in Taiwan

夏侯欣榮(Shin-Rong Shiah Hou) ； 李皇毅(Allen Lee)

《管理評論》 15卷1期 (1996/07) Pp. 85-103

https://doi.org/10.6656/MR.1996.15.1.CHI.85

摘要

本研究主要是對目前績效表現一般的公司，預測其未來財務績效的表現，作為大眾投資之參考。研究樣本區分為三群組，群組一為即將變好的公司、群組二為維持一般績效的公司、群組三為即將變差的公司，進行事件前三群組公司財務比率的比較，以了解公司在事件前是否已有關鍵的財務指標，顯示出公司即將變動的跡象，並運用季報資料建立三群組的預測模式。研究結果顯示模式在事件前兩季的預測正確率均超過60%，超過隨機預測的水準甚多。

關鍵字

財務績效 ； 財務績效預測

並列摘要

This research focuses on predicting future financial performance which is now median. This study encompasses three groups. The first group is comprised of companies whose financial performances improve. The second group is comprised of companies whose financial performances maintain a median level. The third group is comprised of companies whose financial performances deteriorate. The financial ratios of the three groups are compared before the event. The results can assist in an understanding of whether or not the critical ratios can predict the symptom before the event. The results can be used construct a predicted model for each of the three groups.

並列關鍵字

Financial Performance ； Financial Performance Forecast