飲鴆止渴的典型動態決策行為

A Typical Dynamic Decision Behavior: Fix That Fail

楊仁壽(Jen-Shou Yang)

《管理評論》 18卷1期 (1999/01) Pp. 23-56

https://doi.org/10.6656/MR.1999.18.1.CHI.23

摘要

人所生存的環境本質上是動態的，因此動態決策行為的研究，有其探討的重要性。無論是實驗研究或從現實世界的觀察都發現一般人並非良好的動態決策者，Peter Senge歸納出許多典型的動態決策偏差行為，稱之為系統基模。本研究設計一實驗研究，嘗試驗證「飲鴆止渴」系統基模作為動態決策行為理論的效度，並探討動態決策績效不佳的原因及能否從經驗中學習的問題。研究發現，在具有「飲鴆止渴」特性的決策情境中，受試者發生三種飲鴆止渴的行為使得決策績效不佳，且無法從經驗中學習去避免此種偏差行為，只發生單環學習，未發現有雙環學習。
造成飲鴆止渴決策行為的原因包括在思考層面：(1)思考問題的時間幅長過短以至於忽視時間滯延的重要性，(2)思考問題的空間範圍過窄以至於無法處理多因果關聯性所引發的旁作用，以及在控制程式上(3)以線性的資訊處理方式，導致無法理解與控制非線性運作的系統。最終造成在認知層面對回饋資訊的誤解，在行為上產生飲鴆止渴。

關鍵字

動態決策行為 ； 飲鴆止渴 ； 決策績效 ； 單環與雙環學習

並列摘要

Dynamic decision making is an essential topic of behavioral decision making for people live in a dynamic world. Researchers and practitioners have found that people are poor decision-makers in dynamic decision environment. Peter Senge proposed systems archetypes to describe dysfunctional decision behavior in specific structures. The present study attempted to test the validity of ”Fix That Fail” archetypes. Meanwhile, dysfunctional behavior and learning in and about dynamic complex systems were investigated. The results demonstrated that subjects behaved as ”Fix That Fail” archetype predicts. Single loop learning in stead of double loop learning was found.
Three probable causes were responsible for the dysfunctional behavior. The first, insufficient deliberation of time span, subjects neglected the impact of time delay on achievement of the goal. The second, insufficient deliberation of problem space, subjects did not take side effects into account when making decisions. The third, subjects utilized linear principle to deal with nonlinearity of the dynamic task. For the three biases, subjects were unable to interpret feedback information correctly and ”Fix That Fail” behavior resulted.

並列關鍵字

dynamic decision making ； fix that fail ； decision performance ； single and double loop learning

參考文獻

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