以灰色模型為基的園藝栽培產業銷售預測分析

Sales Forecasting Utilizing Grey Theory for Horticulture Industry

林水順(Shui-Shun Lin) ； 莊英慎(Ying-Shen Juang)

《勤益學報》 23卷1期 (2005/06) Pp. 17-28

https://doi.org/10.6753/CYJ.200506.0017

摘要

由於國民所得增加及社會結構改變，消費者對農產品的需求趨向多元化，農業生產結構也隨消費結構的改變因應調整。我國加入世界貿易組織後，必須重新檢討與調整產業的經營管理技術，以因應環境變化。因此，如何運用管理技術，輔助農業經營，提升花卉產業的競爭力，成為重要課題。本文為產學合作結果，研究運用灰色預測理論，進行園藝產業的實務銷售預測，因產業具有短期預測特性與灰色理論有僅需少量資料即可進行預測之能力等因素，遂將灰色理論應用到園藝產業的預測，以期增加預測的準確度。本研究之目的在於歸納園藝產業預測之特性，以灰色理論發展適用於園藝栽培產業支援銷售預測模式，以及使用實務資料驗證模式的準確度，並比較模式之特性與適用性。本研究發現以月為預測單位且使用五期進行園藝產業銷售量之灰預測之準確度最佳。

關鍵字

灰色理論 ； 銷售預測 ； 園藝栽培產業

並列摘要

The structure of agricultural production adjusts itself along with the change of consuming structure. With the increasing gross domestic product and the changing structure of society, consumers tend to need a wide variety of agricultural products. Enterprises have to review and enhance their managerial knowledge and skills to adapt to the fast-changing environment. How to apply managerial knowledge and skills to assist the agriculture producers and make the horticulture industry more competitive has become a crucial issue.
This paper was induced from a co-op project which applied Grey Theory to forecast the total sales for horticulture enterprises. Because of the short-term characteristic of the industry and the facts that the Grey Theory could be used to predict the result with a little data at hand, the study attempted to apply the Grey Theory in forecasting and to fine-tune the prediction model for better precision. This study aimed at generalizing characteristics of horticulture industry prediction and further developing certain sales forecasting models with Grey Theory applicable to horticulture industry.
The study concluded that using month as prediction period and with five period of time could get the best result of sales forecasting.

並列關鍵字

Grey Theory ； Sales Forecasting ； Horticulture Industry