在網絡規模波動下以實質選擇權分析網絡外部性產業之廠商投資行為

Analyzing the Decision of lnvestment with Network Externality by Real Option Approach under the Uncertain Network Size

石百達(Pai-Ta Shih) ； 陳怡豪(Yi-Hao Cheri) ； 潘金谷(Jin-Gu Pan)

《財務金融學刊》 13卷3期 (2005/12) Pp. 53-78

https://doi.org/10.6545/JFS.2005.13(3).3

摘要

本文首度同時考慮廠商與消費者面對不確定因素下，提出結合網絡規模波動及實質選擇權概念為基礎之供需均衡模型，並探討具網絡外部性產黨之廠商相關動態投資行為。本文貢獻為：（1）提出產品網絡規模波動反對投資觸發人數的影響方向並不確定。當網絡外部性越強時，產品網絡規模波動度的增加越可能使投資觸發人數減少；（2）在給定政府定額補貼水準峙，若產品網絡規模波動度大於零，則政府補貼消費者的效果較對廠商進行補貼為佳；與（3）提供一網絡規模波動模型，未來可在均衡架構下利用實質選擇權理論分析許多網絡外部性產業的實際議題。

關鍵字

網絡規模不確定 ； 實質選擇權 ； 投資 ； 網絡外部性

並列摘要

This paper develops a model with uncertain network size and it extends the traditional real option theory to take not only the decisions of firms but also the decisions of consumers into consideration. There are three main contributions in this dynamic equilibrium model: (1).In general, the stronger the network externality is, the more possible a negative relationship between volatility and the trigger number of consumers exists; (2). With uncertainty of the network size of the product, the policy of lump sum subsidy to consumers is definitely better than the policy of lump sum subsidy to a firm; and (3).This paper offers a dynamic model of a volatile network size so that in the future many interesting issues related to network externality can be analyzed by real option approach under an equilibrium model

並列關鍵字

Uncertain Network Size ； Real Option ； Investment ； Network Externality

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