我國國防支出與國民所得因果關係之研究

A Study on the Causal Relation between the Defence Expenditure and the GNP of the Republic of China

廖國鋒(Gou-Fong Liaw)

《國防管理學報》 11卷2期 (1990/06) Pp. 15-25

https://doi.org/10.29496/JNDM.199006.0002

摘要

本研究主要進一步將葉金成、張清興［1］之論文中，僅具單向因果關係的假定，放寬為具雙向的因果關係，並利用多元時間序列分析，探討國防支出與國民所得間的因果關係，研究結果顯示國民所得顯著影響國防支出，而國防支出也對國民所得之影響未達顯著水準。本研究除建立多元時間序列模型，來探討這二個變數間的因果關係之外，並將研究結果與該論文相互比較，研究結果發現國防支出對國民所得之影響未遂顯著水準之結論與該論文不同。

關鍵字

國防支出 ； 因果關係 ； 多元時間序列分析

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to explore the two-way causal relation between the Defence Expenditure (hereafter DE) and the GNP of the Republic of China, by multiple time series analys. It is a further research of comparing with the GNP of the Republic of China, by Yeh, C.J. & Chang, C.S. (1) This study indicates that the GNP has an effect on the DE, but that the effect of the DE on the GNP is not significant. In addition to constructing the multiple time series model to explore the causal relation of the DE and the GNP, the result of this paper, the effect of the DE on the GNP is different with Yeh's.

並列關鍵字

National Defense Expenditure ； Causal Relation ； Multiple Time Series Analysis