軍事決策程序比較行動方案之研究

The Study on the Course of Action Comparison in the Military Decision-Making Process

秦大智(Ta C. Chin) ； 陳華鼎(Hua T. Chen)

《國防管理學報》 29卷2期 (2008/11) Pp. 1-17

https://doi.org/10.29496/JNDM.200811.0001

摘要

參謀學院摘要參謀透過軍事決策程序(MDMP)獲得具最大成功公算之最佳行動方案，惟在比較行動方案過程中，常欠缺量化之數據支持，造成行動方案的說服力不足。本研究目的係嘗試彌補軍事決策程序(MDMP)之缺點，以層級分析法(AHP)爲理論基礎，經向文獻探討與專家問卷調查後，建立7個構面、26項評量率則、2種行動方案，據以建立層級分析架構。經過專家選擇(expert choice)軟體檢測後，各項一效性比率(C. R.)與層級一效性比率(C. R. H.)皆小於0.1，符合層級分析法(AHP)理論之要求；本研究成果顯示，透過層級分析法(AHP)可獲得具最大成功公算之最佳行動方案，提升軍事決策程序(MDMP)品質，有效達成作戰任務。

關鍵字

軍事決策程序 ； 行動方案 ； 層級分析法

並列摘要

The staff compares feasible Course of Actions (COAs) to identify the one with the highest probability of success through the process of the Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP). However, the process of COAs comparison is not convinceable due to the lack of quantitative data. In this paper, we present the decision model that can enhance the quality of the decision-making. Base on analytical hierarchy process (AHP) theory, the construct of AHP is established that include 7 criteria, 26 principles, and 2 alternatives by applying the literature review method and the expert survey method. Both of the consistency ratio (C. R.) and the consistency ratio of the hierarchy (C. R. H.) are smaller than 0.1 by soft of expert choice, which conform the requirement of AHP. The research results demonstrate the most suitable COA with the highest possibility of success through the application of AHP theory. In addition, the research outcome can enhance the quality of MDMP which leads to the effective accomplishment of operational missions.

並列關鍵字

Military Decision-Making Process MDMP ； Course of Action COA ； Analytical Hierarchy Process AHP