以時間序列的觀點進行生產衰減分析

Production Decline Analysis Using Concept of Time Series

張峻彬(Chun-Pin Chang)

《石油季刊》 41卷2期 (2005/06) Pp. 1-14

https://doi.org/10.30128/JP.200506.0001

摘要

本研究主要是針對已開發油氣礦區的生產歷史資料，強化生產衰減預測與蘊藏量估算的凖確度。為了符合衰減曲線分析的基本假設，針對已具有某特定衰減趨勢的生產資料，依時間序列的觀點，移除各類因素（例如：季節因素、循環因素等）對生產狀況所造成的影響，以儘量回復出不受外界影響之下的生產資料，之後再進行生產衰減曲線分析，以強化所得到生產趨勢的正確性，提昇產率預測與蘊藏量估算的凖確度，對於某些可能無法加以重現的影響因素，將以信賴區問的觀念來了解未來產率的變化波動範圍。

關鍵字

生產衰減分析 ； 蘊藏量估算 ； 時間序列

並列摘要

The focus of this study put on the history data of developed oil/gas field, and the main purposes are enhancing the accuracy of oil/gas producing prediction and reserves estimation. To agree with assumption of production decline curve analysis, the influences cause by some uncontrolled factors will be remove from production data by using concept of time series. In addition, these processed data will be used in production decline analysis to obtain the more precise of production forecasting. The confidence interval of future production rate will be estimated to realize the fluctuation and variation range caused by factors that we couldn't reproduce in future prediction model.

並列關鍵字

Production Decline Analysis ； Reserves Estimation ； Time Series