邁向非核家園與擴供天然氣之影響分析

The Impact Analysis of Moving Towards Nonnuclear Homeland and Expanding Natural Gas Supply

林茂文(Maw-Wen Lin)

《石油季刊》 54卷2期 (2018/06) Pp. 57-70

摘要

為因應全球能源環境快速變遷，兼顧國際減碳承諾，國際能源機構預測，到2030年前後天然氣將超越煤炭成為全球第二大能源。我國政府訂出「2025非核家園」目標，啟動能源轉型的策略，在2025年要達成潔淨能源發電結構，再生能源、煤炭、天然氣發電占比分別為20%、30%、50%。本文首先闡述國內外天然氣供需情形及台灣LNG進口、卸收與輸儲設備概況，其次預估未來天然氣供需情勢，作為規劃興建天然氣接收站之依據。有鑒於此，中油正進行興建觀塘第三接收站計畫並規劃擴建台中廠與永安廠接收站，而台電亦已規劃興建第四、第五天然氣接收站及天然氣發電廠，以達成2025年天然氣需求占比5成之目標。同時，探討擴供天然氣關鍵的影響問題，包含政府應研議公布更長期能源供需藍圖、台灣接收站操作面臨超載、台灣天然氣儲槽容積與安全存量天數不足以及燃氣發電的未來發展等問題，希冀擴供天然氣工程能順利興建完成，達成邁向非核家園之目標。

關鍵字

非核家園 ； 天然氣供需 ； 液化天然氣接收站 ； 天然氣儲槽容積及安全存量天數

並列摘要

In response to the rapid changes in the global energy environment and the international carbon reduction commitments, the International Energy Agency predicts natural gas to overtake coal as the world's second largest energy source by 2030. To achieve the ＂2025 non - nuclear homeland＂ vision and increase the share of renewables, coal and natural gas in total electricity generation to 20%, 30% and 50%, respectively, the government has launched energy transition and energy industry reform programs. This paper first provides an overview of current domestic and international natural gas supply and demand markets as well as Taiwan's LNG import, unloading and storage facilities. In addition, the future supply and demand of natural gas is estimated and further used to plan the construction of natural gas receiving terminals. In view of this, not only is the third receiving terminal project in Kwun Tong under construction, CPC also plans to expand the Taichung and Wing On receiving terminals. In preparation for meeting the anticipated growth in future demand, Taipower also plans to build a fourth and fifth natural gas receiving terminal as natural gas is expected to constitute half of total electricity generation by 2025. In addition, to ensure the successful construction of natural gas facilities, the key issues challenges of natural gas supply expansion are examined, including the need for the government to formulate a blueprint for longer-term energy supply and demand, the overload of Taiwan's receiving terminal operations, the shortage of natural gas storage tanks in Taiwan, and the future development of gas-fired power generation.` The expansion of the natural gas project can be successfully completed and the goal of moving towards a non-nuclear homeland is reached.

並列關鍵字

Non-nuclear Homeland ； Natural Gas Supply and Demand ； LNG Receiving Terminal ； Natural Gas Storage Tank Volume and Safety Stock Days