油價漲跌看法廻異透露的訊息

What Does the Difference of Forecast over Oil Price Reveal?

丁信修(Hsin-Hsiu Ting)

《石油季刊》 54卷3期 (2018/09) Pp. 67-85

摘要

對照去年同期，石油市場已發生了劇烈的變化。近期的油價上揚應是情緒性及暫時性的，並非由供應基本面的缺口所引起。油價突漲(Price Spike)看來漸成真，類似2008年的情景重現並非不可能。美國頁岩或許能部分地填補這個空隙，但原來急劇成長的頁岩也開始放緩，部分原因是油管不足的瓶頸(Bottleneck)。同時，整個需求面仍混頓不清，現今的需求看來仍強勁，但還必須觀察可能抑制油價上揚的三個需求面要素。就在幾年之間，全球天然氣市場已經進化了；四年之前LNG的供應是有點受限的，如今卻是供應過剩。LNG歷經根本性及系統性的改變，恐還得花好幾年。高油價看似對出口國是好消息，但改天可能也會傷害了他們的經濟，因為原油需求成長會因高油價而萎縮。在未來幾年中，石化產品所需的原油進料，在原油需求成長所占比例越來越大。近幾年石化產品(Petrochemicals)需求的明顯增加，致上下游整合型的大型石油公司及國營公司已經投注數十億美元在石化產品的設備上。短期內基礎建設無法跟上腳步－美國油氣管線呈現滿載現象，在新管線未建置完成前，美國大量的油氣無法送到國際市場。過去大約十年來，由美國領軍的頁岩革命使全球的產量明顯上升。有關石油供需平衡，「石油頂峰供應(Peak Oil Supply)」尚未來到，而且「石油頂峰需求(Peak Oil Demand)」還離得很遠。

關鍵字

美國德州中質原油 ； 布倫特原油 ； 價差 ； 頁岩 ； 石化產業 ； 石油頂峰需求 ； 石油頂峰供應 ； 石油市場 ； 液化天然氣市場

並列摘要

The market is dramatically different than it was at this point last year. Any near-term price spike could be forced by sentiment and temporary rallies, rather than a fundamental gap in supply. An oil price spike is starting to look increasingly possible, with a rerun of 2008 not completely out of the question. The U.S. shale can partially make up the difference, but the sudden growth from shale producers is starting to slowdown, in part because of pipeline bottlenecks. In the meanwhile, the demand side is not as clear. For now, demand still looks robust. Three important demand-side factors could undermine the high price scenario. Global LNG markets have evolved in just a few years, changing from a somewhat limited supply four years ago to an ongoing supply glut. It will take several more years for LNG to remain undergoing both fundamental and systemic changes. Higher energy prices might seem to be good news for exporters today but tomorrow it will hurt their economies as well because of lower demand growth. Petrochemicals will consist of a rising share of crude oil demand growth in the years ahead. The rising demand for petrochemicals has revealed that the integrated oil majors and national oil companies have poured billions of dollars into new production facilities. The infrastructure can't change quickly in response to higher production, therefore there's a lag in the amount of oil that can make its way from America into international markets. Global production has climbed conspicuously over the last decade or so, led by the U.S. shale revolution. As for the balance between demand and supply, not only does the IEA not agree with peak supply, but it warns that peak demand may be far off as well.

並列關鍵字

WTI ； Brent ； Spread ； Shale ； Petrochemicals ； Peak oil demand ； Peak oil supply ； Oil market ； LNG market