碳中和對全球能源系統的巨大衝擊與變革

The Huge Impact and Transformation of Carbon Neutrality on the Global Energy System

林茂文(Maw-Wen Lin)

《石油季刊》 57卷3期 (2021/09) Pp. 1-38

摘要

Covid-19疫情大流行對能源部門造成的破壞比近代歷史上任何其他事件都大，造成的影響將在未來幾年內顯現出來，特別是它如何影響清潔能源快速過渡的前景。如果說今天的危機是阻礙建立一個更安全和可持續的能源系統的努力，還是加速變革步伐的催化劑還為時過早。疫情大流行還未結束，許多不確定因素依然存在，下一階段的轉型必須加速做好準備，特別是清潔能源的技術創新，政府研發支出需要增加並重新確定優先次序。能源和氣候政策核心的示範和部署之關鍵領域，包括電氣化、氫能、生物能源和碳捕獲、利用和儲存（CCUS）等，應建立低碳發電和能源效率技術，提供全球能源發展的基本條件，達到2050年實現CO_2淨零排放目標，但各國不會在同一個地方開始或在同一時間結束。本報告先闡述碳中和與淨零排放的意涵，其次從近窺遠探討全球能源需求受到Covid-19疫情與2050淨零排放的巨大衝擊，以及在碳中和制約下各國／企業所提出之各種因應情境與措施做法，其目的使化石能源公司能轉型為以新及再生能源為主之綜合性能源公司，以確保到2050年實現淨零的機會。臺灣能源轉型發展需要採取更積極的行動，在最大限度地提高技術可行性、成本效益和社會接受度，同時確保經濟持續成長和能源安全供應。

關鍵字

碳中和 ； 2050淨零排放 ； 能源轉型與能源需求 ； 新及再生能源

並列摘要

The Covid-19 epidemic has caused more damage to the energy sector than any other event in recent history, and the impact will be revealed in the next few years, especially how it affects the prospect of a rapid transition to clean energy. If today's crisis is a hindrance to efforts to build a safer and sustainable energy system, or a catalyst to accelerate the pace of change, it's too early. The pandemic is not over yet, and many uncertainties still exist. The next stage of transformation must accelerate preparations for clean energy innovation, and government R&D expenditures need to increase and re-prioritize. The key areas of demonstration and deployment at the core of energy and climate policy, including electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy, and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), etc., establish low-carbon power generation and energy efficiency technologies, and provide basic conditions for global energy development. Net zero CO_2 emissions will be achieved in 2050, but countries will not start in the same place or end at the same time. This report first elaborates on the meaning of carbon neutrality and net zero emissions, and then discusses the global energy demand from a closer look at the huge changes in the epidemic and 2050 net zero emissions, and various response scenarios proposed by countries/companies under the constraints of carbon neutrality. The purpose of this approach is to enable fossil energy companies to transform into integrated energy companies focusing on new and renewable energies, so as to ensure a net zero opportunity by 2050. Taiwan's energy transition development requires more positive actions. It aims to maximize technical feasibility, cost-effectiveness and social acceptance, while ensuring sustained economic growth and secure energy supply.

並列關鍵字

Carbon Neutrality ； 2050 Net Zero Emissions ； Energy Transition and Energy Demand ； New and Renewable Energy