土壤液化之機率分析法

Probabilistic Analysis for Earthquake-Induced Soil Liquefaction

黃富國(Fu-Kuo Huang) ； 陳正興(Cheng-Hsing Chen)

《地工技術》 82期 (2000/12) Pp. 43-56

https://doi.org/10.30140/SG.200012.0004

摘要

工程上慣常使用之土壤液化（soil liquefaction）潛能評估法，係直接利用地震危害度分析所得之硬地盤最大地表加速度PGA值，及工址可能發生之最大地震規模Mu作分析，其結果往往過於保守，對於液化發生之機率未作評估。本研究利用蒙地卡羅模擬法（Monte Carlo simulation）產生與台灣地區地震危害度相符（hazard consistent）之地表運動參數，並據以評估地盤發生土壤液化損害之年超越機率，此法不僅能充分且合理地反映震區特性對工址可能產生的影響，更能直接評估土層液化之損害風險，其結果可提供大地工程規劃、設計及決策時風險管理之參考。

關鍵字

土壤液化 ； 蒙地卡羅模擬法 ； 地震危害度分析 ； 液化風險分析

並列摘要

In engineering practices, the potential of soil liquefaction during earthquakes is evaluated based on the maximum ground acceleration and the largest magnitude of earthquake of the site. The results obtained are usually over-conservative due to the lack of probability basis. In this paper, a method based on the probabilities of earthquake occurrence and liquefaction occurrence is proposed. A large number of earthquake data, which are consistent with the hazard curve of Taiwan area, are generated by using the method of Monte Carlo simulation. Based on that, the risk of liquefaction damage of a typical soil profile is evaluated using several liquefaction-assessment models. The results thus obtained give the risk-based liquefaction potential which is consistent with the seismic hazard of the site.

並列關鍵字

Soil liquefaction ； Monte Carlo Simulation ； Seismic Hazard Analysis ； Liquefaction Risk analysis