或然率法評估液化潛能之評價

Assessing Probabilistic Methods for Liquefaction Potential Evaluation

莊長賢(C. Hsein Juang) ； 林三賢(San-Shyan Lin)

《地工技術》 82期 (2000/12) Pp. 57-64

https://doi.org/10.30140/SG.200012.0005

摘要

本文旨在評價現有或然率方法用以評估液化之潛能。強調的重點為比較以四種不同方法得出之液化或然率。其中兩種方法為以SPT為根據，另外兩方法則為採CPT。SPT-或CPT-為依據之評估，邏輯回歸及貝氏方法則用於映射安全係數至液化或然率。此研究顯示貝氏方法比邏輯回歸法得到較保守的結果。以危害度為基準的液化潛在性評估方法則於文中討論。

關鍵字

液化 ； 或然率 ； 邏輯回歸 ； 貝氏映射函數

並列摘要

This paper presents an assessment of existing probabilistic methods for liquefaction potential evaluation. Emphasis is placed on comparison of probabilities of liquefaction calculated with four different methods. Two of these methods are based on SPT, and the other two are based on CPT. In both SPT- and CPT-based evaluation, logistic regression and Bayesian techniques are applied to map factor of safety to probability of liquefaction. The present study shows that the Bayesian approach yields more conservative results than does the logistic regression approach, although results from the two approaches are quite comparable. Discussion of the procedure for risk-based liquefaction potential evaluation is also presented.

並列關鍵字

Liquefaction ； Probability ； Logistic Regression ； Bayesian Mapping Function