鑑別分析法於社區危險邊坡篩選之應用與評估

Application of Discriminant Analysis on Identifying Unstable Slopes

廖洪鈞(H. J. Liao) ； 林郁欽(Y. C. Lin)

《地工技術》 87期 (2001/10) Pp. 59-72

https://doi.org/10.30140/SG.200110.0005

摘要

本研究收集坡地社區開發之邊坡破壞與非破壞案例，整理出影響坡地崩塌的因素，並配合崩塌因素評估準則表，將影響因素予以量化，最後利用多變量統計中之鑑別分析法和統計套裝軟體－SAS，對不同邊坡影響因素之變換組合以及降雨情況，做個別及整體性之分析，以初步建立坡地社區邊坡崩塌機率之預測模式。為了解本分析法於鑑別危險邊坡之一般適用性，特與台北市政府建設局89年委託亞新工程顧問公司所研究提出之坡地前期安全篩選評分法進行比對。基本上，雖然兩者之評估機制並不相同，前者係針對較大範圍之條件進行評估，後者則是針對危險徵兆評估，但兩者所得之結果卻仍能呈現50%左右之一致性。

關鍵字

邊坡 ； 崩塌機率 ； 鑑別分析 ； 前期安全篩選評分法

並列摘要

To apply discriminant analysis to identify unstable of slopes, several cases of failed and not failed slopes are collected. By combining various influencing factors and weather conditions, the discriminate functions of landslide probability can be determined by using the discriminate analysis and the statistic software SAS analysis. The factors used to derive the discriminant functions are quantified based on the site conditions of slopes.To verify the suitability of the discriminate analysis on the failure probability of slopes, the calculated results are not only compared with the stability status of slope cases other than those used to establish the analysis model but also the results generated from the preliminary rating system for slope safety used by Taipei city government. The latter is mainly an observational method based on the physical signs of slope instability. The former is more like a predictive method based on the slope conditions and discriminant analysis. The results generated from the discriminant analysis and Taipei city government's evaluation criteria showed about 50% agreement in the calculated results.

並列關鍵字

slopes ； probability of failure ； discriminant analysis ； preliminary rating system for slope safety