臺灣地區醫師人力供需預測之情境分析

Scenario Analysis of Physician Manpower Supply and Demand in Taiwan

藍忠孚(Chung-Fu Lan) ； 宋文娟(Wen-Chuan Sung) ； 陳琇玲(Hsiu-Ling Chen) ； 詹錕鋙(Kun-Wu Tsan)

《中華公共衛生雜誌》 19卷2期 (2000/04) Pp. 86-95

https://doi.org/10.6288/CJPH2000-19-02-03

摘要

目標：為預測未來短、中、長期醫師人力可能面臨問題。方法：本文以質性研究方式運用情境分析法引入模擬情境。結果：經研究發現未來醫師人力供需：（１）若短、中期內醫師人力政策維持不變，則人力問題需以輔助方案予以緩解；（２）若短、中期內醫師人力政策採調整策略，則人力問題可以獲致適當解決；以及（３）若短、中期內醫師人力政策採開放制度，則人力過剩效應會在長期顯現。結論：最後提出討論，期使我國醫師人力培育制度之發展臻於健全

關鍵字

醫師人力供需 ； 情境分析法

並列摘要

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze physician manpower supply and demand. Methods: Using the method of scenario analysis in order to predict possible trends and problems in the future. Results: Our research findings were as follows: (1) If short and mid-term physician manpower policies are fixed, certain supporting plans will be needed. (2) If short and mid-term physician manpower policies are not constant, the manpower problem shall be adjusted with solutions. (3) If short-and mid-term physician manpower policies adopt to an open system, there will be an oversupply of physicians in the long run. Conclusions: Finally, we expect that Taiwan’s physician manpower policies can be improved.

並列關鍵字

Physician Manpower Supply and Demand ； Scenario Analysis