定錨、近期偏誤與分析師推薦評等

本文以52週高點和52週低點做為衡量定錨偏誤的參考點，探討分析師在修正推薦評等時是否會定錨在52週高點或52週低點，研究發現定錨對分析師修正推薦評等具有顯著的影響，分析師在股價接近52週高點有調升評等的傾向，在股價接近52週低點時會有調降評等的傾向。近期效果對評等的修正亦具有顯著地影響，當股價距離前一次52週高（低）點時間越短，分析師越傾向調升（降）評等。整體而言，分析師受到定錨效果與近期偏誤的影響，當分析師受定錨偏誤的影響而在價格接近52週低點時，所調降的推薦評等最具有資訊意涵。

關鍵字

52週高點； 52週低點；定錨偏誤；近期效果；分析師推薦

並列摘要

This paper uses 52-week highs and 52-week lows as reference points to measure anchoring biases. We examine whether analysts will anchor at 52-week highs or 52-week lows when revising their recommendations. The results show that anchoring has a significant effect on the revisions of analysts' recommendations. Analysts tend to upgrade their recommendations when stock prices approach the 52-week highs, and to downgrade when stock prices approach the 52-week lows. The recent effect also has a significant impact on the recommendation revisions. Analysts are more likely to upgrade if the 52-week highs occurred in the recent past, but are more likely to downgrade if the 52-week lows occurred in the recent past. Overall, analysts are affected by anchoring bias and recent effect. When analysts are affected by the anchoring bias and the price is close to the 52-week low, the downgrade recommendations are informative.

並列關鍵字

52-week high ； 52-week low ； anchoring bias ； recent effect ； analyst recommendation

參考文獻

Friesen, G. and P. A. Weller (2006), “Quantifying cognitive biases in analyst earnings forecasts,” Journal of Financial Markets, Vol. 9, No.4, 333-365.

Google Scholar

Garbinsky, E. N., Morewedge, C. K. and B. Shiv (2014), “Interference of the end: Why recency bias in memory determines when a food is consumed again,” Psychological Science, Vol. 25, No.7, 1466-1474.