近代法國人口發展史與家庭政策初探

法國歷史人口學（La Démographie historique française）一直是近代法國學者強調的重要研究方向。法國為歐洲近代史上首先經歷生育率下降與人口老化國家，其家庭婚姻制度變革，成為世界各國人口政策制定的借鏡。法國十八世紀人口開始轉型，十九世紀末、二十世紀初人口呈現停滯現象，使得政策呈現諸多特質，政府需提前面對社會實際需求，其百年人口生育率從谷底到正常穩定提升，深具代表性。其人口研究舉世聞名，法國人口學者亦著墨其人口特色予以分析比較，尤其十九世紀前，婚姻已劇烈變化，家庭開始轉變。本文主以介紹法國歷經百年人口演變過程、與其人口結構中十分重要之家庭政策變遷與福利特色，並作一簡單比較分析，其各自對人口之影響。近年來台灣出生率持續低迷，產生的人口現象，亦可與法國歷史人口經驗相比較，希冀對台灣未來人口政策方向，提供另一種新思維角度。

關鍵字

法國人口；法國歷史人口學；法國家庭與福利政策

並列摘要

For scholars doing French studies, French historical demography (La Démographie historique française) has been an important research direction in which the evolution of French marriage system is often used as a model when decisions on demographic policies are made in various countries. France, the first country in the contemporary European history experiencing a decline of the birth rate and a rise of aging population, saw structural transformations of its population in the 18th century followed by a long stagnation of population from the late19th century to the early 20th century, which led to diverse social policies as the governments took preemptive measures to overcome the challenge brought by the social reality. The remarkable and steady bounce of the birth rate from the bottom in the past 100 years has earned French demographic studies world-wide recognition and reputation. French demographic studies emphasize particularly on analysis and comparison of demographic characteristics prior to the 19^(th) century when marriage changes drastically and families' transformations took place. In addition to a description of the evolution of the French population in the past century, this article compares and analyzes important changes and their implications in family and welfare policies during the demographic transition. Making a comparison with French demographic data, the results of this article may provide a new perspective on Taiwan's future population policies amidst the current demography of continuously low birth rates.