從中東政教鬥爭分析伊朗的區域政策

An Analysis on Iran's Regional Policy: Prospective of the Struggle between Politics and Religion in the Middle East

張念卿(Chang, Nien-Ching)

《國際關係學報》 50期 (2020/12) Pp. 85-122

https://doi.org/10.30413/TJIR.202012_(50).0003

摘要

本文在伊朗發展核計畫及中東地緣政治之背景下，分析其對中東地區之政策，在宗教領域，伊朗與沙烏地阿拉伯競逐伊斯蘭世界之政治權力及影響力，在外交領域，兩國又在阿拉伯國家中競相擴大親遜尼派、親什葉派之影響力，在軍事領域，沙烏地阿拉伯與以色列對伊朗威脅各國內部及區域穩定，與伊朗扶持的親什葉派勢力發生衝突，尤其在核領域，沙烏地阿拉伯暗示可能發展核計畫做為抗衡，以及以色列威脅摧毀伊朗核設施，以上各領域之折衝樽俎，與伊朗核問題產生交互影響，未來伊朗與沙烏地、以色列針對核問題之角力仍將充滿競爭、衝突色彩，以及存在更多的不確定性。

關鍵字

伊朗 ； 核武 ； 中東 ； 什葉派 ； 遜尼派

並列摘要

This study tries to look into the issue of Iran's regional policy in the Middle East in terms of religious, diplomatic, security and nuclear filed. Against the backdrop of Iran's nuclear dossier and Middle East complicated political situation, Iran competes with Saudi Arabia for the political power and influence in the Islamic World. In the field of diplomacy, both Iran and Saudi Arabia race for the power separately in the pro-Shia faction and pro-Sunni faction. In the field of military, Saudi Arabia and Israel clash with the pro-Shia forces supported by Iran because Iran threatens the two countries' internal and regional stability. Especially in the field of nuclear issue, Saudi Arabia hints at desire for developing nuclear program to contend Iran's nuclear program. Israel threatens to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities as well. The above-mentioned struggling in various fields produces interactive impact with the Iranian nuclear issue. Looking to the future, the wrestling between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel over the nuclear issue will still be full of competition, conflict and more uncertainty.

並列關鍵字

Iran ； Nuclear Weapon ； Middle East ； Shia ； Sunni

參考文獻

Larrabee, Stephen and Nader, Alireza, “Turkish-Iranian Relations in a Changing Middle East,” RAND Corporation (March 27, 2013), pp. 1-62.

Nader, Alireza “Why Iran Is Trying to Save The Syrian Regime,” RAND Corporation, (November 24, 2014).

O’Donnell, Norah, “Saudi Crown Prince: If Iran Develops Nuclear Bomb, So Will We,” CBS News, (March 14, 2018).

Panda, Akit “Pakistan’s Approach To Navigating The Saudi-Iranian Split,” United State Institute Of Peace, No. 439, pp.1-24 ( February 2019).

Perkovich, George “Nuclear Development in The GCC: Risks And Trends,” Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, Gulf Yearbook 2007-2008, pp. 227-238.