國際觀光度假區系統動態模式建構－以澎湖為例

國際觀光度假區（Integrated Resorts, IR）結合了遊憩、餐飲、購物、會展及博弈設施等綜合娛樂項目，許多國家藉由設置IR期望促進經濟的發展。由於IR的發展涉及眾多利害關係人，影響因素甚廣，相關因素之間彼此環環相扣且具動態複雜之特性，本研究運用系統動態學方法論，從宏觀之角度發展一個同時包括IR投資者、居民、政府三個利害關係人關注因素之系統動態分析模式，並以澎湖為個案進行政策分析與模擬，探討不同政策（IR管理政策及基礎設施政策）對觀光客人數、IR稅後淨利率以及居民支持度的變化趨勢，作為政策制定者對IR發展的參考與建議。

關鍵字

系統動態學；國際觀光度假區；博弈；觀光

並列摘要

Integrated Resorts (hearafter, IR) provides facilities for multiple purposes such as recreation, dining, shopping, conventions and gambling. Many countries have already established IR and expect to obtained positive effects on the development of economy. The development of IR involves many stakeholders and brings impact on many factors. These factors are closely related and have a dynamic and complex characteristic. This study applies System Dynamics to develop a system dynamic analysis pattern in which the government, residents and IR investors are concerned from a macro perspective. Penghu will be the study case to proceed with the simulation and policy analysis. The study will also explore the changes brought by IR management policy and infrastructure policy respectively to the number of tourists, IR net profit margin and residents' support. It aims to provide the policy makers with references and recommendations.