需求不確定性之產能擴充決策分析－TFT-LCD產業之個案研究

Decision Analysis of Capacity Expansion Planning under Demand Uncertainty: A Case Study of TFT-LCD Industry

周哲維(Che-Wei Chou) ； 簡禎富(Chen-Fu Chien)

《管理與系統》 23卷1期 (2016/01) Pp. 1-29

摘要

TFT-LCD產業面臨產品需求變動快，產品生命週期短及技術創新速度快，導致預測難以準確、生產前置時間拉長與低生產良率等問題。面對產品與技術變遷或是市場的變動，企業考慮產業上中下游的產能，建構自身產能策略，因應新產品導入的同時，滿足市場需求的激增，或是吸收短期需求下滑。產能規劃策略對資本密集與技術密集的TFT-LCD產業是相當重要的議題，特別是在投資成本高且設置時間長、產品多樣化且生命週期短、需求與供給的不確定性高的情況。面對上述問題，驅使廠商採取非常保守的產能擴張策略，然而，在激烈競爭的全球化市場，保守產能擴張策略導致嚴重短缺的風險。對於客戶而言，重點要在既定時間內，能提供足夠的產能和先進製程技術，滿足訂單的需求。本研究係針對需求不確定性之產能擴充決策，以TFT-LCD產業為實證，在需求波動的不確定性下，考量生產成本、產能閒置成本、缺貨成本、投資報酬率、產能建置前置時間等面向，以最大期望利潤為目標，建構TFT-LCD模組組裝廠產能擴充決策模型，提供經營管理者參考。本研究以某TFT-LCD TV模組組裝廠為例，針對大尺寸面板產能擴充決策，驗證本研究效度，並探討研究貢獻及未來研究方向。

關鍵字

需求不確定性 ； PDCCCR製造策略架構 ； 產能規劃 ； 紫式決策分析架構

並列摘要

TFT-LCD industry is facing crucial challenges such as demand uncertainty, shortening product life cycle, and fast technology migration, resulting in inaccurate demand forecast, long production lead time, and lower production yield. In order to fulfill the demands, the high-tech company has to analyze capacity planning and expansion decisions from upstream to downstream to meet various demands, and absorb potential short-term demand shortage loss simultaneously. Capacity planning strategy is critical for the TFT-LCD industry that is capital-intensive and technology-intensive, with long lead time for capacity expansion and production, diversified products and shortening product life cycle. Thus, the present problem consists of various risks for capacity expansion under demand uncertainty. This study aims to develop a decision model for capacity expansion planning under demand uncertainty, in which the TFT-LCD module assembly plant under the highly demand uncertainty is used for empirical study. The proposed framework consists of systematic steps considering production cost, capacity idle cost, shortage cost, return on investment rate, and the lead time of capacity expansion to determine the optimal capacity expansion decision and capacity allocation plan for maximizing the expected profit. The case study in a leading TFT-LCD company has validated the practical viability of the proposed approach. This study concludes with discussion of contributions and future research directions.

並列關鍵字

Demand Uncertainty ； PDCCCR Manufacturing Strategy Framework ； Capacity Planning ； TFT-LCD ； UNISON Decision Framework

參考文獻

簡禎富(2014)。決策分析與管理（二版）。台北:雙葉書廊。

簡禎富、游智閔、徐紹鐘(2009)。紫式決策分析以建構半導體晶圓廠人力規劃決策模型。管理與系統。16(2)，157-180。

簡禎富、陳勁甫、林國義(2013)。在新竹科學工業園區及週邊規劃研究園區之研究。管理與系統。20(2)，227-255。

Ahmed, S.,King, A. J.,Parija, G.(2003).A multi-stage stochastic integer programming approach for capacity expansion under uncertainty.Journal of Global Optimization.26,3-24.

Bermon, S.,Hood, S.(1999).Capacity optimization planning system (CAPS).Interfaces.29(5),31-50.