民粹主義與2020高雄市長罷免及補選

Populism and the 2020 Mayoral Recall and By-election of Kaohsiung City

廖崇翰(Tsung-han Liao)

《選舉研究》 29卷2期 (2022/11) Pp. 115-153

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.202211_29(2).0004

摘要

民粹主義是一種深藏在民主社會中的極端現象，也是許多不同概念所構成的一種侷限性的意識形態，它會影響人民對政治菁英的態度，也會影響選民的投票抉擇。本文以選民的民粹主義傾向為基礎，分析2020年高雄市長罷免與補選的投票情形。民粹主義在兩次不同時期的投票中，是否會影響選民的投票抉擇，並且選民的民粹主義傾向是否會因為他們的人口背景以及政治態度的不同而影響。本文以兩筆資料進行罷免與補選的投票分析，一是蔡佳泓主持，由政治大學選舉研究中心執行的「高雄市第3屆市長罷免案投票研究」，另一份是陳陸輝主持的「台灣選舉民主化調查」，由政治大學選舉研究中心執行的「高雄市長補選案電訪」。研究發現，在罷免時期，民粹主義會受到選民的年齡與學歷的影響；在補選時期，民粹主義傾向會受到選民的政黨認同、台灣人／中國人認同、學歷及職業的影響。另外，高雄市民的民粹主義傾向不會影響他們的罷免投票抉擇，韓國瑜的施政滿意度是選民投下罷免票的主要原因；在補選時，民粹主義傾向愈低的選民會投給陳其邁，但民粹主義不會影響選民投票給李眉蓁。韓國瑜雖然在補選時有幫忙李眉蓁造勢，但並不會影響選民的投票抉擇。

關鍵字

民粹主義 ； 罷免投票 ； 補選投票 ； 韓流現象

並列摘要

Populism is deeply embedded in a democratic society, and a thin ideology composed of many different concepts affects people's attitudes toward political elites and their vote choices. Based on voters' populist inclination, this paper analyzes the voting in the recall of the mayor and the by-election of Kaohsiung City in 2020. In the two different voting periods, the voters' populist inclination was affected by their demographic background and political attitudes. This study uses two sets of data to analyze the voting for the recall and the by-election. One is ＂A Voting Study of Kaohsiung City's Third Mayoral Recall＂ hosted by Tsai Chia-hung and conducted by the National Chengchi University's Election Study Center, and the other is ＂Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study, 2020-2024(I): Kaohsiung City Mayor By-Elections: Telephone Interview hosted by Chen Luhui＂ conducted by the National Chengchi University's Election Study Center. We found that during the recall period, populism was affected by the age and education of the voters. During the by-election period, the populist inclination was affected by voters' party identity, Taiwanese/Chinese identity, education and occupation. In addition, the populist inclination of Kaohsiung voters did not affect their decision to vote for recall. Their satisfaction with Han Guo-yu was the main reason for voters to vote for the recall and in the by-election, voters with lower populist inclination voted for Chen Chi-mai, but it did not influence voters to vote for Li Mei-jhen. Although Han Guo-yu helped Li Mei-jhen in the campaign, it did not affect the voters' choice.

並列關鍵字

populism ； recall ； by-election ； Han wave

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