證券商盈餘預測準確度與股票推薦之決定因素－本國券商與外資券商之比較

Comparing the Determinants of Earnings Forecast Accuracy and Stock Recommendations between Domestic and Foreign Security Firms

李婉真(Wan-Chen Lee) ； 蘇紀維(Chi-Wei Su) ； 陳仁傑(Ren-Jie Chen) ； 池祥萱(Hsiang-Hsuan Chih)

《企業管理學報》 77期 (2008/06) Pp. 117-143

摘要

本文分析比較證劵商特性及公司特性對於證劵商發佈推薦報告的影響。我們依據證劵商對於股票所預測的每股盈餘與實際盈餘的差異計算證劵商發佈推薦報告的盈餘預測準確度，給予量化指標，進而分析證劵商特性是否會對其發佈推薦報告造成影響；另一方面我們也探討公司營業成長與股票報酬績效等公司特性，是否與證劵商所做的推薦等級成正向關係。研究發現證劵商的推薦報告明顯受到券商業務比重、推薦次數與特定公司的推薦次數所影響，而且本國證劵商相較於外資券商所受到的影響較大。而在公司特性方面，研究結果顯示，證劵商會對過去股價報酬較高的個股且營運績效較好的公司發佈較好的推薦。

關鍵字

證劵商 ； 盈餘預測 ； 股票推薦

並列摘要

In this article, we study the influence of security firm's characteristics and company's characteristics on stock recommendation report. The first, we calculate the earnings forecast accuracy of the security firm, according to the difference between the stock EPS forecast from security firm and the stock actual EPS, and analyze if security firm characteristics will affect forecast accuracy of security firm. The second, we quantify the recommendation levels of the recommendation report in order to examine the relationship between the company's characteristics and company's recommendation levels. The results indicate that the number of forecast and the number of company-specific forecasting will affect stock recommendation report; security firm will announce the better recommendation report with stocks that have the positive return and the better of companies' performance.

並列關鍵字

Security Firm ； Earnings Forecast ； Stock Recommendations

參考文獻

Working paper, University of Alabama and University of Maryland

Banz, R. W.(1981).The relationship between returns and market value of common stocks.Journal of Financial Economics.9,3-18.

Working paper, UC-Davis, UC-Berkeley, and Stanford University

Barber, B.,R. Lehavy,B. Trueman(2007).Comparing the stock recommendation performance of investment banks and independent research firms.Journal of Financial Economics.85(2),490-517.

Bard M. Barber,Doublas Loeffler(1993).The "Dartboard" column: second-hand information and price pressure.Journal of Finance and Quantitative Analysis.28(2),273-284.