國際農產價格波動對台灣農畜產品產銷之影響模擬分析

A Simulation for the Impact from Fluctuation of International Agricultural Prices on Agricultural Sector in Taiwan

許玉雪(E-Sher Hsu)

《統計與資訊評論》 12卷 (2010/09) Pp. 1-26

https://doi.org/10.29862/JSC.201009.0001

摘要

本文研究目的乃在於透過TWAPS模型系統，模擬評估國際農產價格波動對國內農畜產品產銷的影響，並提出相關因應對策，以玆農政單位參考。模擬過程將透過TWAPS系統內外生變數之改變以及專家意見的設定方法，模擬分析國際主要糧食作物價格上漲50％及下跌40％對整個農畜產業相關內生變數的影響程度。模擬結果顯示，在國際主要糧食作物價格上漲50％的情境下，若政府未採取任何因應措施，維持現行農業政策不變，國內農畜產業價格面所受的影響將遠大於產量面的影響，零售價格上漲的幅度遠大於產地價格上漲的幅度。國際糧食作物價格上漲主要衝擊畜產業的發展，畜產業在飼料成本不斷高漲下，勢將逐漸萎縮。而國際主要糧食作物價格下跌40％主要衝擊穀類作物，對產量的影響將大於對產地價格的影響，幾年後穀類作物產量將減少，所得也將隨之減少。整體而言，國內農畜產品的產銷所受國際農產價格上漲的影響較大；而反應國際農產價格下跌的影響很小。在國際糧食作物價格上下起伏波動的狀態下，強化農產品產製銷通路將比生產面的調整更有效且更具實質意義。

關鍵字

國際農產價格 ； 台灣農業政策模擬系統 ； TWAPS ； 農業政策

並列摘要

This study aims to evaluate the impact of fluctuation of international agricultural prices on agricultural sector in Taiwan by adopting Taiwan Agricultural Policy System (TWAPS). Some policy implications to Taiwan COA for future policy making will be provided based upon the results of this study. Two scenarios, 50% increase and 40% decrease on international price of cereals, are simulated by changing values on exogenous variables and setting expert opinions in TWAPS. Without government's intervention, the study results from scenario of 50% increase on international price of cereals show that the impacts on domestic prices are larger than on domestic productions in agricultural sector. The impact on retail prices is expected to be more than on farm gate prices. Simulation results also indicate that the increase on international price of cereals would mainly impact the development of livestock sector due to the rising cost of feeding stuff. While the decrease on international price of cereals would significantly impact on crop sector, but not on livestock sector. Moreover, the production side would reflect more than farm gate prices on the decrease of international price of cereals. The study results show that the production and farmers' income of crop sector in Taiwan would be reduced along with the drop in the global price of cereals. In general, agricultural sector would be impacted more from increasing international price of cereals than from decreasing international price of cereals. In response to the fluctuation in the global price of food crops, this study suggests that enhancing the linkage among production, processing, and marketing is a reality strategy which is more efficient than only adjust production side.

並列關鍵字

International Agricultural Prices ； Taiwan Agricultural Policy System ； TWAPS ； Agricultural Policy