策略互動與實證分析：逆推統計法及其於外交政策研究的應用

Strategic Interaction and Empirical Models: An Application of Statistical Backward Induction to the U.S. Special 301 Report

吳文欽(Wen-Chin Wu)

《台灣政治學刊》 19卷1期 (2015/06) Pp. 99-145

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.201506.19(1).99-145

摘要

政治學的諸多主題，例如選舉競爭、政黨結盟、以及國際衝突等，皆涉及到行為者之間的策略互動。本文引介近來在美國政治學界新興的統計模型：「逆推統計法」（statistical backward induction），此模型的特色在於使用改良後的統計方法，驗證由賽局模型所推導出的策略互動，進而符合「理論模型的實證意涵」（empirical implications of theoretical models, EITM）的研究典範。本文從「隨機效用模型」（random utility model）出發，探討一般常見的「樣本選擇模型」（sample selection model）與「巢狀勝算對數模型」（nested logit model）為何無法有效處理具有策略互動性質的資料，並逐步解釋「逆推統計法」如何結合賽局理論與統計模型來分析這類資料。本文最後採用「逆推統計法」，一方面分析影響美國貿易代表處如何擬定「特別三○一名單」，以及被列名國家如何回應的因素，一方面說明如何將「逆推統計法」應用於外交政策的實證研究。

關鍵字

賽局理論 ； 逆推統計法 ； 特別三○一條款 ； 理論模型的經驗意涵

並列摘要

While conventional statistical methods usually assume that the error term in the models are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), this assumption is usually violated when observations are interdependent due to the strategic interactions among players. The violation of the i.i.d assumption results in the inefficient estimation of standard errors that can further invalidate the hypothesis testing. This paper discusses the method of statistical backward induction (SBI) developed by Curtis S. Signorino and his coauthors that can be used to analyze different kinds of strategic interactions in politics, such as electoral competitions, party coalitions, and international conflicts. After demonstrating how to derive the SBI estimator, this paper applies SBI to analyze how the U.S. government uses the Special 301 Report to coerce its trade partners into protecting the intellectual property rights (IPR) of American products. It shows that one country's trade surplus with the U.S. is a key determinant for the U.S. to nominate this trade partner in the Special 301 Report. Meanwhile, it is the dependence on the U.S. market that affects the nominated country's decision to ignore or comply with the U.S. threat of trade retaliation implied by the Special 301 Report.

並列關鍵字

EITM ； Game Theory ； Special 301 Report ； Statistical Backward Induction

參考文獻

瞿海源編、畢恆達編、劉長萱編、楊國樞編(2012)。社會及行為科學研究法（三）：資料分析。台北=Taipei:東華書局=Tung-Hua Publication。

黃紀(2010)。因果推論與效應評估：區段識別法及其於「選制效應」之應用。選舉研究。17(1)，103-134。

黃紀、王德育(2012)。質變數與受限依變數的迴歸分析。台北=Taipei:五南=Wunan。

Bas, Muhammet Ali,Signorino, Curtis S.,Walker, Robert W.(2007).Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models.Political Analysis.16(1),21-40.

Katherine, Barbieri, ,Keshk, Omar M. G.,Pollins, Brian(2009).TRADING DATA: Evaluating our Assumptions and Coding Rules.Conflict Management and Peace Scienc.26(5),471-91.