列車營運計畫之可靠性分析

九十分鐘列車延滯則旅客有權要求理賠是國內鐵路運輸的新規定。為了探討列車營運計畫之可靠性或服務品質，本文研擬隨機模擬模式，可以詳細分析列車營運計畫中某一列車、某一路段、某一時段所發生列車延滯之次數與時間，並可在營運前彙整求得單位營運期間整體列車營運計畫之列車延滯的數量與機率。文中將陳述以南迴鐵路為對象之測試分析，亦探討列車調度策略與行車密度對列車延滯之影響。

關鍵字

鐵路運輸；可靠性；風險管理；列車調度策略

並列摘要

Ninety-minute-delay is the new qualifier for rail transportation ticket refund in Taiwan. In order to study the quality of service of railway operations, this paper investigates the probability and duration of delay by stochastic simulation technique for a train, a section, and a whole operation plan, as well as for a specific time period or a whole day. As a result, the total delay or reliability of a railway timetable can be tested in advance of its real world operations.

並列關鍵字

Rail Transportation ； Reliability ； Risk Management ； Train Dispatching Strategy

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