摘要
經濟發展對能源的依賴甚深，而確保能源的穩定供應也一向是各國經濟發展政策中最重要的一環。當面臨供應短缺的風險升高，或是購買的成本大幅提升時，將使其得以維持一定成長目標的難度增加，甚至導致經濟的衰退。這種經濟成長受到明顯負面衝擊的現象可能在某種程度上己反映在其「能源安全度」的變化上面。本文從預防及適應的角度來看待所謂的能源安全度，以經濟承載能量爲重心，並以台灣爲例，檢視台灣歷年幾個時點的能源安全狀況。透過對供應量中斷及價格上漲的模擬，本文發現相對於1990年代，台灣2000年以後之能源安全度已明顯下降，經濟體系承載能源供應中斷及價格上漲衝擊的能量下降了。這點與台灣之產業結構一直無法擺脫朝向能源密集產業結構發展的方向有關，也與世界各主要國家發展的趨向背道而馳，是一個相當值得關注的現象。未來台灣的能源及產業政策如果無法做更大的調整，將越來越無法承受可能面臨的衝擊。
並列摘要
Recent years have seen increasing attention being paid to the issue of energy security. While Taiwan relies heavily on imported energy, constantly assessing its energy security situation has become an extremely important task of the government agencies. While traditional energy security indicators either take only the supply side into account, or consider only part of the demand-side effect, the important interactions among the players of the whole economy have largely been neglected This study makes use of the ORANI-G model, a famous and typical computable general equilibrium model, to assess the energy security for Taiwan. We distinguish sources of imported energy by making suitable changes to the model and assigning necessary substitution elasticity values. Simulations have been focused on the changes in energy price and quantity of energy supply. Our simulation results show that when a region or a specific oil-exporting country raises oil price, GDP will be affected negatively. In the case of oil supply disruption, reducing the oil supply from Saudi Arabia has the greatest effect on Taiwan's economy, since most of imported oil in Taiwan is from Saudi Arabia. The simulation results from the above analysis have also been used to modify the Shannon-Weiner index to create a new energy indicator to assess the energy security for Taiwan. The results show that the higher the import energy dependency is, the greater the impact Taiwan has to endure for a rising energy price or energy supply disruption