目標區與農產品價格之穩定：農產品現貨與期貨模型

一國的物價高低，攸關著國民生計，如何利用有限的資源及政策來穩定物價，除了是政府關注的議題外，亦是人民所關心的焦點。另外，有鑑於目前農產品之期貨交易日益活絡，且農產品現貨價格的變化與期貨價格之變化互有牽連，因此本文將延伸Frankel （1986）、Lai、Hu與Wang（1996）、賴景昌、王葳與胡士文（2000）、及呂麗蓉等（2008）等之經濟模型，據以探討若政府對農產品設定了現貨價格目標區，是否可達到農產品現貨價格有安定之作用，農產品期貨價格、非農產品價格（或匯率）是否會因此而付出不安定之代價。本文發現：當經濟體系出現干擾時，政府若設立農產品現貨價格目標區，農產品現貨價格是否存在蜜月效果取決於農產品的「現貨價格效果」與「期貨投機程度」之相對大小；而農產品期貨價格則會更進一步受到農產品「資產的需求程度」相對大小影響。此外，政府在追求社會福利損失極小化的前提下，不管農產品現貨價格是否存在蜜月效果，未必就應該實施農產品現貨價格目標區，而是視政府整體社會最適化之考量而定。

關鍵字

農產品期貨價格；最適目標區；蜜月效果

並列摘要

The stability of price level is the question which is cared deeply about by the economy. In addition, an increasing in transactions of agricultural futures price and reacting between agricultural spot and futures prices, this paper extend the model of Frankel (1986), Lai, Hu, and Wang (1996), Lai, Wang, and Hu (2000), and Lu et al. (2008) and investigate if a honeymoon effect as described in Krugman (1991) exists after the target zones policy was announced. On the positive side, it is found that whether the honeymoon effect exists depending on the relative magnitude between the spot price effect and the degree of speculation in relation to the agricultural product. Moreover, not only are the above condition able to influence the stability of the agricultural futures price, but also the relative magnitude between the degree of asset demand and the degree of speculation, and the relationship between agricultural spot and futures prices. Finally, an announcement of an agricultural spot price target zone will stabilize manufactured product prices regardless of the prevailing situation. In the normative side, it is found that honeymoon effect is not the main reason to affect the government to defend the agricultural spot price target zone under social welfare loss-minimizing.

並列關鍵字

Agricultural Futures Price ； Optimal Target Zone ； Honeymoon Effect

國際替代計量

目標區與農產品價格之穩定：農產品現貨與期貨模型

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