本文提出以多變量模糊時間數列模式一二因子模式、引導式模式、馬可夫模式、建構台灣地區國小教師人數之預測模式。實證結果得知在有限資料筆數下,馬可夫模式預測結果較佳,二因子模式次之,引導式模式第三。而在方法操作上,以多變量模糊時間數列引導式模式最為簡易。
In this paper, we apply multivariable fuzzy time series models to forecast the number of elementary teachers in the Taiwan area. The empirical result of analyzing here can be concluded as follow: The error of Markov model is the smallest, Tow-factor is the second smallest, and Heuristic model is the smallest. The multivariable fuzzy time series Heurisistic mode is the easiest method follow.