從複雜理論觀點探索創新擴散的動態過程：一個新概念擴散實驗

To Explore the Dynamic Diffusion Process of an Innovation from Complexity Theory Perspective: A Laboratory Experiment of Diffusing an Innovative Concept

王美雅(Mei-Ya Wang) ； 吳思華(Se-Hwa Wu)

《科技管理學刊》 16卷2期 (2011/06) Pp. 81-119

https://doi.org/10.6378/JTM.201106.0081

摘要

本研究引進複雜理論來討論新概念的擴散現象。研究者將創新擴散視為一個自我組織的過程，從複雜理論的重要概念如初始狀態、互動原則、正向回饋等出發，重新檢視過去的創新擴散文獻，發展出一個創新擴散的動態模型以及相對應的命題；其次，本研究採用實驗法模擬新概念擴散的過程：研究者導入一個新概念，統計實驗參與者採用的情況，過程中利用不同實驗情境的操弄來比較擴散成果的差異，共進行了二十八次實驗。整體而言，研究者主張，一項創新是否具有「再創造可能性」是擴散能否成功的關鍵因素；「體系的開放與自由度」決定新舊成員進出系統疆界的難易程度，只有新成員的能源（其採用與再創造）源源不絕注入的情況下，自我組織才能維持，創新擴散才能持續下去。另外，歸納實驗結果，「創新內涵豐富性」似乎還是影響整個擴散的最重要因素，其後分別是「體制開放與自由度」與「創新者的網路位置」。此外，「再創造可能性」雖具關鍵重要性，但僅有少數採用者具有再創造的能力。

關鍵字

創新擴散 ； 複雜理論 ； 實驗法 ； 再創造 ； 自我組織

並列摘要

This paper applies a new perspective, complexity theory, to discuss the diffusion of innovation. By using ”metaphor”, we treat a process of innovation diffusion as a self-organization process. Thus we borrowed some important concepts from complexity theory, such as initial conditions, interaction rules and positive feedbacks, re-visited the literature of innovation diffusion, and then developed a dynamic process model of innovation diffusion. To get empirical data, a laboratory experimental study has been done. In each experiment, a new concept was announced and counted the number of adopters. Each experiment has different scenario design that is one specific combination of all variables, and then the number of adopters was compared. Totally 28 experiments were conducted.This paper has the following findings. First, ”the possibility of reinvention” is critical to the success of diffusion of an innovative. Only if the system is open enough to new agents to enter and their reinvention, new energy can be brought into the system continuously and self-organization won't stop, which ensures diffusion process going on. The results of laboratory experiments show that the innovation itself is the most influential factor to the success of diffusion, and then ”the openness and freedom of system” and ”the innovator's network position” respectively. Although ”the possibility of reinvention” is critical to the success of diffusion, only very few people are able to reinvent the innovative concept.

並列關鍵字

Diffusion of Innovation ； Complexity theory ； Laboratory experimental method ； Reinvention ； Self-organization

參考文獻

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