複雜理論觀點下之創新產業政策：以韓國推動智慧家庭產業為例

目前政府擬定產業政策的決策程序，多半遵循企業策略規劃的方式，透過對未來環境的預測，配合國內的相對競爭優劣勢分析，進而決定策略性產業的發展方向。事實上，隨著產業結構的快速變化，形成技術相依 (technological interdependence) 的創新生態系統 (innovation ecosystems)，才是推動新興產業的最大挑戰。不過，過去對產業政策的研究，多半從經濟學的角度，評估政策之競爭力與有效性，卻較少探討產業政策與廠商行為之間的關係，此外，透過產業政策引導廠商建構創新生態系統的動態過程，在過去研究中亦付之闕如。因此，本研究納入複雜理論觀點 (complexity theory)，以韓國政府致力推動的智慧家庭產業為例，分析不同成員的互動關係，探討產業政策的另一種創新規劃模式。研究發現，產業政策應透過編寫未來想像藍圖或劇本，使潛在成員能理解價值承諾、快速尋找利基並形成標準，進而共創未來；其次，國家資源應由集中投入轉而以「分散式與階段性」的實驗性策略評估模式，挹注新興產業，以維持系統能量，逐步建構創新生態系統。

關鍵字

產業政策；新興產業；複雜理論；創新生態系統；韓國智慧家庭產業

並列摘要

A national industrial policy usually follows the concept and process of traditional strategic planning, by external environmental scanning, forecasting and the competitive advantage analysis. After deciding promising industries, the government then invests sufficient resources to support related actors. However, when faced with the rapidly changing and unpredictable future, one wrong decision may result in resource rigidity. Actually, building an innovation ecosystem to create value by technological interdependence is the biggest challenge. However, most studies emphasize to evaluate the competitiveness and effectiveness of policies, and neglect the relationship between policies and firms behavior, overlooking how innovative entities interact and grow.This study adopts the complexity theory, using the Korean smart home industry as an example to analyze how entities interact, proposing a new paradigm for promoting emerging industries. This study believes industrial policies should be collective mobilized, not unitary focused; secondly, resources should be invested by stage to keep the momentum, instead of focusing all resources in one direction. The government should therefore be able to create an innovation ecosystem.