整納技術特徵與價格變動之動態擴散模型：以液晶電視為例

Dynamic Diffusion Model for Considering Technological Characteristics and Price Changes: Using LCD TVs as an Example

洪秀婉(Shiu-Wan Hung) ； 蔡君明(Juin-Ming Tsai)

《科技管理學刊》 17卷1期 (2012/03) Pp. 1-26

https://doi.org/10.6378/JTM.201203.0001

摘要

創新產品的商業化往往伴隨高度風險，如能精確預估市場潛量並掌握產品擴散模式，將有助於企業降低風險與維持在市場上的競爭力。創新產品的特徵可視為由不同的技術隨時間不斷演進的集合，當消費者面對一項產品時，其所知覺到的價值是來自於所有的產品特徵。然而，過去的擴散研究卻鮮少考量技術特徵對產品擴散的影響。本研究首次結合技術特徵與價格變數對市場動態擴散探討，試圖連結出消費者對創新產品的採用與技術特徵之間關係。研究以液晶電視產業為例，建構液晶電視動態擴散模型。研究結果發現，擴散模型的模仿係數遠大於創新係數，顯示台灣地區的消費者對於液晶電視採用，主要受使用者的口碑效果影響為主，消費者的模仿性購買行為大於創新性購買行為；考慮技術特徵與價格變動之動態市場潛量模型預測能力明顯優於未考慮。液晶電視的市場潛量與液晶電視關鍵技術特徵具有正向的相關性；而每10%的價格下降將增加約3.5－5%的銷售量成長。

關鍵字

擴散模型 ； 技術特徵 ； 市場潛量 ； 液晶電視

並列摘要

A high degree of risk often follows the commercialization of innovative products. Accurately estimating market potential and grasping product diffusion models is beneficial to enterprises in decreasing risk and preserving market competitiveness. The characteristics of innovative products can be considered the integration of various technologies that continuously evolve over time. When consumers approach a product, the value they perceive results from the product features. However, previous studies on diffusion rarely considered the influence of technological characteristics on product diffusion. This study is the first to combine technological characteristics and price variables to investigate dynamic diffusion in the market. Additionally, this study establishes the relationship between consumer adoption of innovative products and technological features. The study uses the LCD TV industry as an example, and develops a dynamic diffusion model for LCD TVs. The results of this study show that the imitation coefficient of the diffusion model is substantially greater than the innovation coefficient, indicating that the main influence on consumers in Taiwan adopting LCD TVs is the word-of-mouth effect from users. Consumers' imitative purchasing behavior is more substantial compared to their innovative purchasing behavior. The predictive power of a dynamic market potential model that considers technological characteristics and price changes is clearly superior to a model that does not consider these factors. A positive correlation exists between the market potential of LCD TV s and the crucial technological characteristics of LCD TV s. Every 10 % decrease in price increases sales growth by approximately 3.5 % to 5%.

並列關鍵字

Diffusion model ； technological characteristics ； market potential ； LCD TV

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