Disability Rate and the Expenditure on Long-Term Care Services of the Aged in Taiwan-An Application of GM(1,1) in the Compound Variable

For the expenditure on long-term care of the aged is a compound variable composed of several variables, steps of estimating it is proposed in this study. We assumed that the rate of the aged with disability, the growth rate of healthcare professionals' real wage and the growth rate of' CPI could change continuously in the time, and apply GM(1,1) model to forecast the above there variables and the number of the aged. Therewith, we could examine at the same time, which property of the above variables might have an impact on the applicability of GM(1,1). The results illustrate that the growth rate of the total expenditure on long-term care will forecasted to be 208.99% from 2001 to 2011. The main reason for its tremendous increase is the rapid growth of the rate of the aged with disability. In addition, it is found that GM(1,1) performs very well, when being applied to forecasting the sequences with stable and fluent growth, while poor, when being applied to forecasting the sequences with central symmetry.

並列關鍵字

Long-term Care ； GM 1,1 model ； Disability Rate

被引用紀錄

Hung, Y. C. (2010). 應用灰色理論預測國際筆記型電腦市場發展趨勢 [master's thesis, Chaoyang University of Technology]. Airiti Library. https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0078-2611201410130132

國際替代計量

Disability Rate and the Expenditure on Long-Term Care Services of the Aged in Taiwan-An Application of GM(1,1) in the Compound Variable

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