Road Accident Death Prediction Using a Combined Markov Chain and GM(1,1) Model

The paper proposes a dynamic analysis model to develop the road accident prediction model. The dynamic analysis model takes advantage of powerful prediction capability of GM (1,1) model based on grey system theory while at the same time utilizing the prediction power of Markov chain model from stochastic process theory. Furthermore, Taylor approximation method is employed to acquire the most accurate prediction. As the illustrative example, we predicted China's road accident death toll from 2006 to 2010 based on the statistical data recording of 1987 to 2005.

並列關鍵字

Road traffic accident ； GM(1,1) model ； Markov chain ； Taylor approximation method

被引用紀錄

黃智政（2010）。應用區塊離散餘弦轉換搭配灰預測模式檢測車用鏡面玻璃表面瑕疵〔碩士論文，朝陽科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0078-2611201410125924

國際替代計量

Road Accident Death Prediction Using a Combined Markov Chain and GM(1,1) Model

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