我國民營化釋股規劃對資本市場影響之探討

A Study of the Impact of Privatization Stock Floatation Schedule on the Stock Market in Taiwan

張玉山(Yue-Shan Chang) ； 江淑貞(Sue-Jane Chiang)

《Asia Pacific Management Review》 4卷1期 (1999/03) Pp. 51-61

https://doi.org/10.6126/APMR.1999.4.1.05

摘要

在民國85年12月底召開「國家發展會議」之「經濟發展」的議題中，對於台灣地區公營事業民營化相關事項達成具體共識，預定5年內完成民營化，並因而釋放出約1.3兆元的公股。如此大量且直接的在資本市場釋出，國內資本市場之胃納是否足以全數吸收，而不會產生「排擠效果」？本文嘗試以Branson的資產組合平衡模型估計台灣資本市場的規模，估計出未來5年資本市場每年的胃納約有1.4兆元~1. 8兆元的規模，每年釋出之公股約佔市場總胃納的0.56-28.4%。然而，由於公股的釋出集中在前三年（民國87-89年），使得這三年的資本市場產生15.5~31.1%之超額供給。另外，當公股完全按照經建會所規劃的時程表釋出時，在民國87-89年三年亦將排擠約16-30%的民股發行。因此吾人建議若能將釋股時間拉長、不必侷限於5年，或改以全民釋放並輔以海外釋股，公股的釋出應較能成功。

關鍵字

民營化釋股規劃 ； 資本市場胃納 ； 排擠效果

並列摘要

This paper investigates the impact of privatization stock floatation plan on Taiwan's stock market. As Chang and Lin(1997) indicated, the total stock floatation amount of the privatization plan is estimated over NT$1300 billion. Impacts of such large volume of government shares on Taiwan's stock market have become one of the intriguing questions concerning the success of the ambitious privatization plan.This paper adopts Branson's Portfolio Balance approach to estimate the scale of Taiwan's stock market, and the possible ”crowding out” effect of the government shares released to the market by the privatization plan. Our investigation indicates that the estimated volume for additional shares in the stock market ranges from NT$1400 to 1800 billion. The ambitious privatization stock floatation plan may indeed ”crowd out” some private investment. If the privatization plan can be lengthened to allow room for the huge government share to a longer time span, and innovation stock float arrangements, then the ambitious plan may stand a reasonable chance of success.

並列關鍵字

privatization stock floatation ； crowding out ； scale of stock market

參考文獻

Cheung, Y. W., Lai, K.(1993).Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity During the Recent Float.Journal of International Economics.34

Hamilton, J. D.(1994).Time Series Analysis.Princeton, New Jersey:Princeton University Press.

Johansen, S.(1991).Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models.Econometrica.59(6)

吳致寧 Wu, Jyh-Lin(1995)。開放總體經濟研討會論文集。中央研究院經濟研究所。

施俊吉 Shih, Jun-Ji、 林啟智 Lin, Chi-Chih、 周崇輝 Chou, Chung-Hui(1997)。公平交易法學術研討會論文集。