Test of Export-Led Growth and Growth-Led Export Hypotheses in Indian Context: An Econometric Analysis for the Period of 1951-2004

Deepak K. Srivastava ； Garima Kapoor

《Asia Pacific Management Review》 12卷2期 (2007/04) Pp. 113-115

並列摘要

India has been one of the world’s fastest growing economies in recent years; so success or otherwise of export-led growth is of great interest for trade policy purposes. This study examines the relationship between export and economic growth in the Indian economy from 1951 to 2004. To test this, the study employs Granger causality test using annual time series data. The estimation results do not support the export-led growth hypothesis for India, while results show the unidirectional causality from economic growth to export. Growth-led export strategy can be thought to be suitable for large economy like India in view of its large internal market. Results are not surprising as India has been characterized by inward-oriented economy which gave importance to import substitution over export promotion. Perhaps the effect of this strategy has been so deeply rooted that trade liberalization of 1990 is yet to be manifest in export–led growth for India.

並列關鍵字

Export ； Economic growth ； Granger causality test

參考文獻

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