China's "Counter-hedging" Engagement with Southeast Asia

中共與東南亞的交往：“反避險戰略”

鍾健平(Chien-Peng Chung)

《遠景基金會季刊》 3卷4期 (2002/10) Pp. 47-67

https://doi.org/10.7063/PQ.200210.0047

摘要

中共於「十六大」進行權力接班後，對東南亞各國的外交政策將會繼續擴大并強化雙邊既存的外交、經濟、戰略與文化互動模式。中共認為東南亞各國是對其采取一種「避險」或「兩面討好」的行動，在經濟上與大陸交往，戰略上則有所保留。東南亞國家希望後大陸獲得經濟利益，惟亦協助美國在區域內保有軍力，且又想讓日本扮演非傳統性的安全角色。中共希望東南亞國家放棄騎牆態度，改採與大陸全面合作之政策。中共準備采取「反避險戰略」，包括削弱美日同盟以及美國與東南亞國家間之雙邊關係等，以促使東南亞國家接受中共在亞洲之領導地位。

關鍵字

東協 ； 反避險戰略 ； 雙邊自由貿易協定 ； 中共 ； 南海主權爭端

並列摘要

After the leadership transition in CCP's 16th Congress, the policy toward Southeast Asia of PRC will exhibit more continuity than disruption. Beijing desires to broaden and intensify existing modes of diplomatic, economic, security or socio-cultural interaction between China and the countries of Southeast Asia. China perceives that Southeast Asian countries has adopted a from of ”hedging” or ”fencestraddling” behavior of combining economic engagement with strategic hesitation when it comes to dealing with China. Southeast Asian countries hope to optimize economic opportunities and benefits with China, but also help the United States retain a military presence in the region and engage Japan in non-traditional security roles. China would want to turn Southeast Asia's desire to hedge on China into a longing for comprehensive cooperation instead. Beijing is prepared to adopt a strategy of ”counter-hedging”, including weakening the US-Japan alliance and bilateral alliances between the US and Southeast Asian countries, in reaching out to Southeast Asiancountries, to make them come to terms with China's leadership in Asia.

並列關鍵字

ASEAN ； Counter-hedging Strategy ； Bilateral Free Trade Agreement ； PRC ； Sovereign Disputes in South China Sea

參考文獻

Chinwanno, C.(2002).ASEAN-China Dialogue: The Challenges of Cooperation.Singapore:Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

Dean, J., McBeth, J.(2002).Lu's Excellent Adventure.Far Eastern Economic Review.

Dhume, S., Lawrence, S. V.(2002).Buying Fast into Southeast Asia.Far Eastern Economic Review.

Goh, Evelyn(2001).Non-Traditional Security Issues in Southeast Asia.Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies.

Koh, Tommy(2002).Economic Partnership Between ASEAN, Japan and China: Opportunities and Challenges.Singapore:ISEAS and Keizai Koho Center.