2002年國際情勢之回顧與展望

The Review and Prospect of 2002 International Situations

兩岸交流遠景基金會國際問題研究小組(International Affairs Research Division Cross-strait Interflow Prospect Foundation)

《遠景基金會季刊》 4卷1期 (2003/01) Pp. 147-179

https://doi.org/10.7063/PQ.200301.0147

摘要

綜觀2002年國際情勢，美因內外政策持續以反恐為核心，使其得以順勢主導國際局勢朝其有利的方向發展。在美單邊主義的架構下，已將攻打伊拉克、迫使海珊下臺列為第二階段的反恐目標，然恐怖分子在全球的爆炸攻擊行動仍使各國所受的威脅不減反增。中東、南亞等區域雖有零星衝突，但全球局勢大致穩定。北約東擴獲得實質進展，區域國家亦相繼推動自由貿易協定；此外，中共企圖扮演理性、負責任的區域強權之角色亦日益突出。受到恐怖主義攻擊事件影響、美國國內在消費緊縮及攻打伊拉克前景不明等因素下，全球經濟復甦趨緩。展望未來，即使美國能順利推翻海珊政權，中東政局仍將趨於複雜，且國際恐怖主義活動亦不致因而消弭。

關鍵字

單邊主義 ； 反恐怖主義 ； 自由貿易協定

並列摘要

This Article is a review of the 2002 international situation. It points out that US domestic and foreign policies continuously make anti-terrorism the nucleus, with the result that the US conducts the international situation and moves it in the direction, which benefits the US. Under the structure of US unilateralism, the global anti-terrorism war proceeds continuously, and attacking Iraq and overthrowing Saddam Hussein have become the second stage of the anti-terrorism goal. However, terrorist activities in the world still continue to threaten various countries where a sense if insecurity is on the increase. Although conflicts in the Middle East, South Asia and some areas still exists, the global political situation is relatively stable. The NATO expansion has substantially progressed, the Free Trade Agreement has been promoted to various regions in succession and China's role as a rational and responsible regional power has been notable. The global economy is recovering slowly; the main factor of the terrorist attacks being a reduction of US domestic expenditure with the ambiguous foreground of war against Iraq. In the future, even if the US is able to overthrow the Hussein regime, the Middle East political situation post-Hussein will become complicated and the international terrorist activities will still not be terminated.

並列關鍵字

Unilateralism ； Anti-Terrorism ； Free Trade Agreement