布希政府安全戰略發展評析

An Analysis of the Bush's Security Strategy Development

鄭端耀(Tuan Y. Cheng)

《遠景基金會季刊》 4卷2期 (2003/04) Pp. 1-37

https://doi.org/10.7063/PQ.200304.0001

摘要

本文以守勢與攻勢現實主義理論為分析架構，探討布希安全戰略發展。研究結果顯示，布希政府安全戰略發展至今經歷過三個階段，即守勢戰略規劃、被迫回應調整與主動攻勢戰略。整體而言，這是從守勢戰略經歷過渡調整，朝向攻勢戰略的發展途徑。911 事件無疑是造成布希戰略變化最主要的推動力，其它如國家安全感受威脅、守勢戰略不足、國內外形勢助長以及缺少有力的反對力量等，亦構成戰略變化發展的原因。依據當前布希安全戰略所顯示的特色，其與攻勢現實主義所標舉的理論主張，具有相當程度的一致性。以此推估，未來除非布希政府面臨重大國際關係或國家安全的挫折，否則目前的攻勢戰略發展仍將持續。

關鍵字

美國安全戰略 ； 布希安全戰略 ； 911 事件 ； 守勢現實主義 ； 攻勢現實主義

並列摘要

The author uses the theoretical framework of defensive and offensive realism to analyze the Bush administration's security strategies of the first two years period. The research reveals that there were three identified stages of development of the Bush
security strategies-defensive strategic planning, reactive adjustment, and offensive strategies. Overall it was characterized by a path development moving from defensive toward offensive strategies. No doubt, the September 11th event was the main force for such a change; the other factors of the perception of national security threat, inadequacy of self-defense, and the lack of counter force in the international as well as domestic arena all contributed to the development. Looking to the future, in accordance with a high degree of consistency between offensive realism and the Bush’s security policies, it is highly likely that the current offensiveoriented strategies would continue unless the Bush administration will encounter serious challenges in the action against Iraq or major setbacks in homeland security.

並列關鍵字

U.S. Security Strategy ； Bush's Security Strategy ； September 11th Event ； DefensiveRealism ； Offensive Realism

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