美伊戰爭對中共建軍備戰可能影響

美伊戰爭不僅對中東地區及全球戰玁格局產生影響，更造成對共軍的衝擊。共軍汲取了美軍作戰經驗，據以調整其建軍規畫，並修正現有之國防與軍隊建設方向。鑑於科索沃與美伊戰爭是現代高技術的典型戰例，本文首先回顧科沃戰爭經驗在共軍軍隊建設之實踐，接著探討共軍對美伊戰爭之觀察與評估，並預測其對中共建軍備戰可能影響，最後評析它對我國在臺澎防衛作戰上之啟示與亞太安全之影響。本文以為，美伊戰爭對共軍建軍備戰的可能影響計有：增加國防預算、強化超限戰與攻擊敵方本土及「抗美打臺」的能力、加速推進具中國特色的「新軍事變革」等。此外，美伊戰爭雖已激起共軍加速現代化的決心，惟其近來相關強化作為卻也引起周邊國家加深對「中國威脅論」之疑慮與警惕。

關鍵字

美伊戰爭；科索沃戰爭；共軍

並列摘要

The result of ”US's war on Iraq” not only affects mid-east Asia and global strategic structure but also vibrates China's military preparation, as which viewed as US' potential enemy. ”Every battle waged by U.S force may help to reduce the gap between the PLA (People's Liberation Army),” as PLA has believed and taken as its own experience to modify the military establishment. Under the experience of hi-tech and advanced war such as War on Iraq and Kosovo, I intend to explore on what the PLA learned and did after the war on Kosovo. In the meantime, I will examine the observation and evaluation of the PLA on this war and predict the influence of War on Iraq for PLA's development and the trends of war preparation. Finally I will assess PLA's learnings from the War on Iraq, and the relating influence for Asian Pacific security affairs. There are some viewpoints mentioned in this paper, such as defense budget increment, over-limit warfare capability, the experience reflecting on ”countering the U.S. and attacking Taiwan”, the revolution in military affairs, etc. The event of War on Iraq has already arisen PLA's determination to reach modernization, and the PLA's behavior has also alerted China's neighbor countries. The argument about ”China, the coming threat” has also been to reinforced.