貿易與衝突：國家大小對國際互動的影響＊

貿易衝突模型主張本國不會存心引發衝突來對抗貿易夥伴目標國，係因懼怕失去兩國之間的貿易利得。本文延伸貿易衝突模型，檢視國家大小如何影響國家間之貿易利得。導出三個關於貿易、衝突及國家大小的國際互動命題。這些命題均顯示一個國家與大國的貿易條件改善，會比與小國的貿易條件改善，減少更多的衝突。經由「衝突與和平資料庫」30國樣本作實證檢定，分析結果支持此項命題結論。模型顯示一個國家可以影響貿易夥伴的國內消費，是決定國家間國際互動的一個重要因素。

關鍵字

衝突；合作；貿易；國家大小；國際互動

並列摘要

The trade-conflict model claims that one state, designated ”actor”, is deterred from initiating conflict against a trading partner, designated ”target”, for fear of losing the welfare gains associated with trade. This paper extends the trade-conflict model to examine the effect of country size that will influence the trade gains among countries. We derive three propositions regarding to international interactions that pertain to the links between trade, conflict and country size. These hypotheses all imply that a country with an improvement in its terms of trade with a large country will decrease conflict more toward the large country than with an improvement in its terms of trade wit ha small country. A 30-country sample from the Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) is used for empirical tests. The empirical analyses support the derived hypotheses. The model predicts that a country'sability to influence domestic consumption in a trading partner is an important determinant of international interactions.

並列關鍵字

Conflict ； Cooperation ； Trade ； Country Size ； International Interactions

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